Part 1 The Hidden Traps in Decision Making
The higher the stakes of your decision, the higher the risk of getting caught in a thinking trap. When these traps work in concert, they can amplify one another. In this article, the author introduced 5 kinds of psychological traps.
First and foremost, the anchoring trap means giving disproportionate weight to the first information received, which needs us to view a problem from different perspectives. The second one is the status-quo trap, favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation, and the solving tactic is always reminding yourself of your objectives. The sunk-cost trap is the most familiar one in our common sense and we should always try to set aside it when we are making decisions. Also, about the confirming-evidence trap, it means that seeking information that supports your existing point of view. To avoid this trap, we need to check that whether the criteria is at the same level of all the evidence or not. The last one is the estimating and forecasting trap, which stands for being overly influenced by usually rarely happened but vivid memories when estimating. The key to dealt with it is being very disciplined in forecasting.
These traps are very common, not only in our daily life but also in the business or other professional fields. Just like the author says, “Forewarned is forearmed”, it is really important for us to raise our awareness about them and try to get rid of them while we are making our judgments.
Part 2 Consilience
In this article, the author view the Rwandan catastrophe in a different way compared to the main stream. It emphasized the factor, high population growth over burdened the resources, is the underlying cause of the massacre.
Part 3 Shake Hands with the Devil
In the view of the author, Rwanda Massacre is the failure of humanity. The UN, the United States, France, the media and the NGOs should be blamed for not reacting quickly and