Business Confidence Index: a Reflection of Business Sentiment in Bangladesh
WORKING PAPER # 06/2007
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX: A REFLECTION OF BUSINESS SENTIMENT IN BANGLADESH
Selim Raihan and A K Iftekharul Haque
December 2007
SHAMUNNAY
2/E/1-B Mymensingh Road, Shahbag, Dhaka 1000, BANGLADESH
Phone: +088-02-8610332, 8622320, 8650015, Fax: +088-02-8622320 E-mail: shamunnay@sdnbd.org, shamunnay@gmail.com Website: http://www.shamunnaybd.org
Business Confidence Index: A Reflection of Business Sentiment in Bangladesh
Selim Raihan1 and A K Iftekharul Haque2
Introduction There is a growing popularity of short term economic indicators in many countries to monitor the economic trends and provide the economic analysis with the early signals of the turning points in the economic activity. Both the government and the private sector decision makers benefit from these indicators to plan their strategies. Recently it is widely heard in Bangladesh that there is a lack of confidence among the businessmen which ultimately may slowdown crucial economic activities. Some governmental initiatives have also been seen to stimulate the momentum of business. Considering these aspects we decided to construct a ‘Business Confidence Index’ on the basis of a business sentiment survey conducted recently among the business enterprises in Dhaka. This article provides the results of this interesting exercise. This business confidence survey was carried out during the second half of November 2007. In future as well, we will be conducting this survey on quarterly basis. What is a Business Confidence Index? It has already been mentioned earlier that the Business Confidence index (BCI) is a short term early alarming system to forecast the trend of the economy. BCI is based on a survey to determine the attitudes and expectations of business executives and entrepreneurs. The survey covers expectations of employment, investment, company-specific financial performance, business cost, sales (including export) orders and inflation. The advantage of using BCI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX: A REFLECTION OF BUSINESS SENTIMENT IN BANGLADESH
Selim Raihan and A K Iftekharul Haque
December 2007
SHAMUNNAY
2/E/1-B Mymensingh Road, Shahbag, Dhaka 1000, BANGLADESH
Phone: +088-02-8610332, 8622320, 8650015, Fax: +088-02-8622320 E-mail: shamunnay@sdnbd.org, shamunnay@gmail.com Website: http://www.shamunnaybd.org
Business Confidence Index: A Reflection of Business Sentiment in Bangladesh
Selim Raihan1 and A K Iftekharul Haque2
Introduction There is a growing popularity of short term economic indicators in many countries to monitor the economic trends and provide the economic analysis with the early signals of the turning points in the economic activity. Both the government and the private sector decision makers benefit from these indicators to plan their strategies. Recently it is widely heard in Bangladesh that there is a lack of confidence among the businessmen which ultimately may slowdown crucial economic activities. Some governmental initiatives have also been seen to stimulate the momentum of business. Considering these aspects we decided to construct a ‘Business Confidence Index’ on the basis of a business sentiment survey conducted recently among the business enterprises in Dhaka. This article provides the results of this interesting exercise. This business confidence survey was carried out during the second half of November 2007. In future as well, we will be conducting this survey on quarterly basis. What is a Business Confidence Index? It has already been mentioned earlier that the Business Confidence index (BCI) is a short term early alarming system to forecast the trend of the economy. BCI is based on a survey to determine the attitudes and expectations of business executives and entrepreneurs. The survey covers expectations of employment, investment, company-specific financial performance, business cost, sales (including export) orders and inflation. The advantage of using BCI