After Hope and Change
Chapter 1 Questions
Show three facts that illustrate why 2012 was “a fairly narrow victory” for Obama.
1. President Obama had won reelection by a close margin of only 3.85 percent. He earned a rank of 24 out of 30 past elections since the year 1896.
2. President Obama became the only incumbent in history to win reelection while losing vote share. Obama lost vote share in nearly every state during the election.
3. Despite winning reelection, President Obama had joined a group of three other previous incumbents (Eisenhower, Wilson, and Clinton) who had all entered office originally with a united government in their very first term and then won reelection with a divided government. Obama had lost his seats on the House of Representatives. Wilson was the only other president in history to lose more seats than President Obama.
The novel speaks on how five incumbent presidents since 1896 had lost reelection and then begins to explain why those same factors didn’t apply to President Obama. Summarize the four arguments the authors make.
1. There are multiple reasons Barrack Obama’s 2012 presidential reelection was a slight victory although he won reelection, it was fairly close in the polls. The opponent Mitt Romney didn’t have a proficient performance when he had to present his plans on if he was to be elected, not only did this show some of his flaws as a speaker but also as a candidate. Romney had way too many weak points that Obama was able to take advantage of to convince the American people he was still their best option. Romney pushed his few advantages way too far. He stayed on one topic the entire time and would mindlessly talk about that same subject, which was a flaw on his part especially close to the elections. If Mitt Romney had given better speeches and realized some of his mistakes before elections, the outcome may have been different in 2012.
Summarize the arguments that the authors made concerning the results from the 2012 elections and what they may tell us about the 2016 elections.
The first point made by the authors uses statistics to predict that the Presidential election in 2016 will be a battle for the most swing states. In 2012, Barrack Obama had gained the states that he won in his previous election. These states had also been the same couple states that the last three democratic presidential candidates had also won as well. Romney had also won the states that previous republican candidates had won as well. There were only two states that had changed between the 2008 and 2012 elections. Because of how the republicans have lost the last two presidential elections (including the 2012 elections), they have some serious work to do and they must pull off swinging multiple states in the 2016 elections (something that hasn’t happened in half a century).
The second point of the chapter speaks on the changes in demography. In between the years of 2008 and 2012 percentages of the ethnic groups that vote democrat increased very high. These voter increases were very noticeable with an increase in youth support, especially for democrats. Without any explanation the numbers of ethnic races that vote republican dropped. The very republican votes that dropped during the election were surprisingly white males. This made an impression that the youth were in complete support of Obama. This is important because in the future it would seem that they will go on to support the democrats. At the same time it is very possible that the turnout was quite low in the 2012 race turnout for many favorable republican categories was quite lower than expected. Minorities refused to vote for Mitt Romney simply because their identity with him was almost nonexistent if he would become the next president. This ...
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