INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS AND OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT 6 : FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Dr. Ravi Mahendra Gor Associate Dean ICFAI Business School ICFAI HOuse‚ Nr. GNFC INFO Tower S. G. Road Bodakdev Ahmedabad-380054 Ph.: 079-26858632 (O); 079-26464029 (R); 09825323243 (M) E-mail: ravigor@hotmail.com Contents Introduction Some applications of forecasting Defining forecasting General steps in the forecasting process Qualitative techniques in forecasting Time series methods The Naive Methods Simple Moving
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An Assignment On Forecasting Submitted To Dr. Tophan Patra Submitted By Kumail Murtaza MBA AVM SEM III R250211021 College of Management and Economic Studies (CMES) University of Petroleum and Energy Studies Dehradun‚ India Exponential Smoothing Class Values Ft+1 = α.Xt + (1- α).Ft ----------------------------------- Eqn 1 Ft+1----- Forecasted Value of the next period “t+1” α------- Smoothing Factor/Coefficient Xt------- Actual Value
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Qualitative Forecasting Approaches Qualitative forecasting methods are based primarily on human judgement. Quantitative forecasting methods are based primarily on the mathematical modelling of historical data. Here we provide a brief overview of the most important qualitative forecasting approaches. In many environments the time horizon is closely linked to the type of forecasting method used. Longer term and higher level forecasting will often require qualitative forecasting techniques. Such techniques
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Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 1 Forecasting Techniques and Technical Analysis By Students: Nodar Svanidze‚ Zurab Sxirtladze Research Paper In: Managerial Economics Dr. Edward Raupp Tbilisi 2011 Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 2 Forecasting Forecasting is used for identifing a variety of business – trends‚ planning management activities. Such information makes it possible to take better decisions and create better plans. Forecasting is required
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Riodan’s Forecasting Technique The demand globally for Riordan’s electric fans would be considered in a 12-month (4 quarter) forecast for a medium-term strategic forecast would be used. Which would show the planning and production scheduling in anticipation of customer demand and product positioning at decoupling points along its global supply chain. The only (one year) sales invoices that were available were the ones from 2005‚ and could be used for the 3-year average sales data to forecast
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Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals. Forecasting involves taking historical date and using it to project future data with a mathematical model. Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. In this paper I will introduce
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Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar‚ but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series‚ cross-sectional or longitudinal data‚ or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example‚ in hydrology
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Businesses use forecasting to predict future‚ trends‚ patterns‚ and business with data to develop a forecast. This data is used to predict future sales. In forecasting we use testing and reasonableness to predict future events. Companies use this method to compare their sales with other companies. Forecasting has many benefits to include; what is the popular product customers are purchasing‚ and it enhances cash flow‚ and identifies patterns and trends inside a corporation. Using this method
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Forecasting Forecasting is a prediction of what will occur in the future. It is an uncertain process that is vital to survival in today’s international business environment. Rapid technological advances have given consumers greater product diversity as well as more information on which they make their product choices. Managers try to forecast with as much accuracy as possible‚ but that is becoming increasingly difficult in today’s fast-paced business world. Forecast Methods There are two
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process
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