INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS AND OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT 6 : FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Dr. Ravi Mahendra Gor Associate Dean ICFAI Business School ICFAI HOuse‚ Nr. GNFC INFO Tower S. G. Road Bodakdev Ahmedabad-380054 Ph.: 079-26858632 (O); 079-26464029 (R); 09825323243 (M) E-mail: ravigor@hotmail.com Contents Introduction Some applications of forecasting Defining forecasting General steps in the forecasting process Qualitative techniques in forecasting Time series methods The Naive Methods Simple Moving
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9/5/14 Chapter 5 Forecasting To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management‚ Tenth Edition‚ by Render‚ Stair‚ and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl © 2008 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. © 2009 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. Introduction n Managers are always trying to reduce uncertainty and make better estimates of what will happen in the future n This is the main purpose of forecasting n Some firms use subjective methods n Seat-of-the pants methods‚ intuition‚ experience n There are also
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process
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Inventory Proposal Carmaletta Lewis‚ Darius Kellar‚ Janee Norman‚ Lynn Pham Quantitative Reasoning for Business/501 March 11‚ 2013 Dr. Vinata Kulkarni Abstract The team used the raw data from the University of Phoenix Summer historical inventory data and forecast to discuss the inventory system problems to determine the inventory system of American Motors. The team converted the time series data into an inventory analysis for American Motors. Introduction
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Business Forecasting One of the steps‚ say the very first one‚ in the process of management is planning. Planning is understood as the process of setting goals and choosing the means to achieve these goals. Planning is essential for‚ without it‚ managers cannot organise people and resources effectively. Meaning and Definition Forecasting is fundamental to planning. Forecasts are statements about future‚ specifying the volume of sales to be achieved and equipment‚ materials and other inputs needed
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Demand forecasting Demand Forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods‚ such as educated guesses‚ and quantitative methods‚ such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions‚ in assessing future capacity requirements‚ or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. •
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FORECASTING Q1: Moving averages are often used to identify movements of stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in $ per share) for Toys Я Us for 22 September‚ 1997‚ through December 8‚ 1997‚ are as follows (Prudential Securities Inc); Month Sept 22 Sept 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 Dec 1 Dec 8 Fund Price 37.8750 35.6250 34.6875 33.5625 32.6250 34.0000 33.6250 35.0625 34.0625 34.1250 33.2500 32.0625 a. Use a 3-month simple moving average
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Demand Forecasting in the Indian Retail Industry Applied Economics (HS 700) Course Project Report Vijay Gabale (07305004) Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016) Piyush Masrani (07305017) Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020) Tanmay Mande (07305051) March 19‚ 2008 1 Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Challenges Faced in Demand Forecasting 3 Theoretical Framework 3.1 Judgemental
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of the industry High Inventory holding costs Growth achieved due to favorable pricing Innaccurate forecasting methods Several factors affect the future demand of Wilkins products‚ one of which is commercial and institutional construction activities. Furthermore seasonality‚ new building initiations‚ remodeling‚ the actual construction of homes and finally the product and price promotions are all key factors that play a big part when it comes to future demand forecasting. After thorough examination
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Forecasting Techniques Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner‚ 2009). The qualitative method of forecasting is one in which an educated opinion of relevant individuals
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