Assignment 1 Decision Analysis Questions 1-6 refer to the following A family business is considering making an investment in its manufacturing operation. Three decisions are under consideration: (1) a large investment; (2) a medium investment; and (3) a small investment. The business believes that there are three possible future outcomes for its product: (1) increasing demand; (2) stable demand; and (3) decreasing demand. The following payoff table describes the decision situation.
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or loss that could result from each investment: Gasoline Availability Investment Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $8‚000 $15‚000 $20‚000 Restaurant 2‚000 8‚000 6‚000 Theater 6‚000 6‚000 5‚000 Determine the best investment‚ using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax 20‚000 motel b. Maximin 5‚000 theater c. Minimax regret 14‚000 motel or Restaurant d. Hurwicz(a=.4) theather 5‚400 e. Equal likelihood =Motel 9‚000 16. A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether
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Theories‚ Models‚ and Decision Making There are many theories‚ models‚ and principles in describing the ways that people make decisions. The expected utility theory is based on a normative theory of behavior. It describes how people would behave if they followed certain requirement of rational decision making (Plous‚ 1993‚ p. 80). Further studies showed that paradoxes such as framing effects violated the principles of expected utility theory which made researches turn to alternative models of
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Application of the three decision-making models‚ the seven decision-making strategies‚ and the two marketing theories can be seen in current efforts by marketing practitioners and academicians to tease apart the complex decisions made by consumers. For example‚ choice models and conjoint models are multivariate analysis techniques based on these understandings. Consumers are presented with choices in controlled environments that‚ hopefully‚ control for other confounding variables‚ and then the choices
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: SQQP 5023 COURSE NAME : DECISION ANALYSIS LECTURER : DR. SYARIZA ABDUL RAHMAN email: syariza@uum.edu.my tel: 04 – 9286975/ 016-4127923 1. COURSE SYNOPSIS Mathematical tools have been applied for thousands of years; however‚ the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making is largely a product of the twentieth century. Decision analysis refers to a body of techniques that allows a decision-maker to evaluate uncertainty‚ risk
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objectives 1. Understand basic control processes in decision-making‚ and develop appropriate control systems to support specific strategies 2. Identify and evaluate appropriate performance measures to properly assess performance 3. Recognise the importance and the impact of effective information systems in supporting decisions concerning evaluation and control 4. Describe the determinants of decision success and understand the decision making matrix 2 Introduction Text based sources
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Prescriptive Theory and Descriptive Theory 3 Economic Theory 4 Decision Usefulness Theory 5 Critical Accounting Theory and Critical Theory 6 System-Oriented Theories 7 Open System Theories 8 Behavioral Decision Theory 9 Legitimacy Theory 10 Political Economy Theory 11 Institutional Theory 12 Stakeholder Theory 13 Agency Theory 14 Normative Theory 15 Public Interest Theory 16 Capture Theory 17 Economic Interest Theory/Private Interest Theory 17 Positive
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COB 291 Decision Theory Homework 1) The payoff table showing profit for a decision analysis problem with two decisions and three states of nature is shown below. a. Solve this problem using a payoff matrix b. Construct a decision tree for this problem. c. Evaluate the decision tree. 2) Suppose a decision maker is faced with four decisions alternatives and four states of nature as shown in the table below. a. Solve this problem using a payoff matrix b. Construct a
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Decision theory tells what we may rationally prefer and not what we may rationally believe. Desires according to Hume‚ are original existences and not subject to rational assessment. Drier says this may be a bit of a bold statement but so what? It isn’t irrational that we have conflicting desires‚ but it is the decision out of them that is important. I don’t want sunburn. I stay inside. Trouble arises when I prefer staying in to sunbathing‚ sunbathing to short exposure and short exposure to staying
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Decision Analysis Example Consider the following problem with three decision alternatives and three states of nature with the following payoff table representing profits: States of Nature s1 s2 s3 d1 4 4 Decisions d2 0 3 d3 1 5 Which decision do you choose? -2 -1 -3 Problem Formulation • A decision problem is characterized by decision alternatives‚ states of nature‚ and resulting payoffs. • The decision alternatives are the different possible strategies the decision maker can employ. • The states
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