AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY ABSTRACT It is commonly maintained that energy is an imporant input of industrial growth and‚ in this way‚ economical development. The scarcity of energy resources in the world make the relation between economic development and energy consumption more significant. In this study‚ the possible cointegration is inspected by Engle-Granger and Johansen Tests and the direction of the causality is searched by Granger causality
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part you thoroughly motivate your interest in the time series you are about to analyze. You should argue why it is of interest and importance to model your data series. You also briefly report what you do in your project and what results and conclusions you reach. 3. Data. In this section you describe where and how you got the data. Carefully describe all data characteristics‚ length of your time series‚ and frequency. Make a graph of your data series; you could also make a table with summary statistics
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS Chapter Three Univariate Time Series Models Chapter Three Univariate time series models c WISE 1 3.1 Preliminaries We denote the univariate time series of interest as yt. • yt is observed for t = 1‚ 2‚ . . . ‚ T ; • y0‚ y−1‚ . . . ‚ y1−p are available; • Ωt−1 the history or information set at time t − 1. Call such a sequence of random variables a time series. Chapter Three Univariate time series models c WISE 2 Martingales Let {yt} denote
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Demand Forecasting Problems Simple Regression a) RCB manufacturers black & white television sets for overseas markets. Annual exports in thousands of units are tabulated below for the past 6 years. Given the long term decline in exports‚ forecast the expected number of units to be exported next year. |Year |Exports |Year |Exports | |1 |33 |4 |26
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concepts. Here we discussed autoregressive time series‚ covariance stationary series‚ mean reversion‚ random walks‚ Dickey-Fuller statistic for a unit root test. * The second part of the project contains analysis and interpretation of co-integration and error correction model between EUR/AMD and GBP/AMD exchange rates. Considering the fact‚ that behavior of these two currencies has been changed during the crisis‚ we separately discuss three time series periods: * 1999 2013 * 1999 to 2008
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Question 5 - 10 marks (Equity Options) It is January 2nd‚ 2014 and Google Inc. (GOOG) stock is currently trading on the Nasdaq at a price of $1‚105.00 US dollars. Using the information provided below‚ please answer the following questions: (Note: ’Last’ means the last traded price of the put or call option. Use this number for your calculations). Call options: Put options: a) Based on the current stock price‚ which one of the two options is in the money? by how much? (1 marks) b)
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Analysis of Financial Time Series Third Edition RUEY S. TSAY The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Chicago‚ IL A JOHN WILEY & SONS‚ INC.‚ PUBLICATION Analysis of Financial Time Series WILEY SERIES IN PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Established by WALTER A. SHEWHART and SAMUEL S. WILKS Editors: David J. Balding‚ Noel A. C. Cressie‚ Garrett M. Fitzmaurice‚ Iain M. Johnstone‚ Geert Molenberghs‚ David W. Scott‚ Adrian F. M. Smith‚ Ruey S. Tsay‚ Sanford Weisberg Editors Emeriti:
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Chapter 4_class exercise True/False 1. The forecasting time horizon and the forecasting techniques used tend to vary over the life cycle of a product. Answer: TRUE 2. A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast. Answer: TRUE 3. Cycles and random variations are both components of time series. Answer: TRUE 4. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved. Answer: TRUE 5. If a forecast is consistently greater
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Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series‚ cross-sectional or longitudinal data‚ or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example‚ in hydrology‚ the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times‚ while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates‚ such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty
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Business Forecasting Contents 1.0 Executive summary…………………………………………………………………………………4 2.0 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………5 3.0 Question 1……………………………………………………………………………………………...6 4.1 a) Time series plot…………………………………………………………………………6 4.2 b) Exponential smoothing methods……………………………………………….8 4.3 c) 8 months Forecasted period……………………………………………………11 4.4 d) Forecasting report……………………………………………………………………13 4.0 Question 2……………………………………………………………………………………………
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