The Myths Of The Four Imperatives

Andy Ferris
Energy, Technology and Policy
Spring 2014
April 8, 2014
Word Count: 1,481 + 500

The Myths of the Four Imperatives
Robert Bryce poses some interesting solutions to the US energy industry. With the recent growth in production of natural gas, and the clear benefits of nuclear energy it is easy to see why he might come to the conclusion that those two energy resources should dominate the energy industry of the future. However the premise on which his ideas are built is severely flawed. Robert Bryce seems to believe that the only possible outcomes are extreme scenarios. He makes this clear through his emphasis on what he refers to as the Four Imperatives; power density, energy density, cost and scale. Using these criteria
Once that point is crossed, fossil fuels will be at a severe disadvantage as the low operating costs and zero fuel costs associated with these technologies will represent lower risk financial investment than their alternatives.
The final Imperative of “Power Hungry” is Scale. This is where Bryce’s extremism really comes to light. The massive levels of consumption of power within the US and abroad is made explicitly clear throughout the book. Those levels of consumption are only expected to increase. However Bryce appears to be of the opinion that if one solution cannot possibly meet the entire energy need, then it has no place in the energy industry what so ever. This is an absurd position as reliance on so few single power sources increases the risk of your overall energy portfolio exponentially. The solution going forward is obviously a hybrid approach incorporating traditional fossil fuels, renewable sources, high potential nuclear energy as well as yet-to-be developed energy
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It has already been demonstrated that solar has the potential to meet a significant portion of energy demand. In addition, growth in battery technology and further expansion of transmission lines will allow wind to overcome one of the main obstacles to widespread adoption. Finally, the historical trend to decarbonize fuel sources leads to the obvious conclusion that renewables have a bright future in the energy industry. Bryce seems to want to throw out these technologies by discrediting a
100% renewables solution that most would agree is infeasible anyways. Solutions are never black and white, and Bryce seems to overlook the grey.
Because of the flawed premise on which Robert Bryce builds his vision of the energy future, it is challenging to accurately assess the conclusions that he reaches.
Certainly natural gas and nuclear have applications going forward, and will for many years to come. However, when Bryce implements his Four Imperatives to discredit any potential that renewable sources have he overlooks many key facts. Using arbitrary criteria to discredit these technologies is ill-advised when the energy industry of the future will require all available resources to be utilized in a responsible and efficient