Technology forecasting is considered to be vital in today’s business environment. There have been many success stories as well as failures. Forecasting technology impacts many aspects from acquiring a new technology to developing a new technology. The course will start with reviewing several methodologies and then will analyze those impacts and how to make them beneficial for the organizations through many case studies, professional and research articles. Case Studies are selected from Harvard Business School Case Studies. Articles are selected from journals such as Technology Forecasting and Social Change.
GRADING AND DELIVERABLES
Cases (team – in class)
Paper + Presentation
2 article discussions
GUIDELINES FOR DELIVERABLES
CASES – Cases will be analyzed and presented in class by teams. You should read and get yourself familiar with the case before the class, READINGS – You will be assigned 2 articles to discuss in class. PROJECT – Identify an emerging technology as a team and develop a forecast using Technology Forecasting Tools. Examples of such projects will be provided.Your team is required to present the progress and results of your project during the scheduled times in class. Progress presentations should not exceed 20 minutes and the final presentation will be limited to 45 minutes. You also will need to submit a report which should follow TFSC journal guidelines for a journal paper. Your report should include a literature search justifying the topic and methods used. CASES
Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service, David A. Garvin, Lynne C. Levesque, Product#: 306002 2.
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product, Elie Ofek, Product#: 505062 - AND - Forecasting the Adoption of E-Books, Elie Ofek, Peter Wickersham, Product Number: 9-505-063 3.
Illinois Superconductor Corp.: Forecasting Demand for Superconducting Filters, Mohanbir Sawhney, Lisa Damkroger, Greg McGuirk, Julie Milbratz, John Rountree, Product#: KEL096
Introduction to Technology Forecasting
Linstone, H.A., TFSC: 1969-1999. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 1-8. 2.
Ayres, R.U., What have we learned? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 9-12. 3.
Martino, J.P., Thirty years of change and stability. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 13-18. 4.
Porter, A.L., Tech forecasting an empirical perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 19-28. 5.
Linstone, H.A., The 21st century: Everyman as Faust – technology, terrorism, and the multiple perspectives approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 3, March 2003, Pages 283-296.
Technology Forecasting Techniques
Mishra, Somnath, S. G Deshmukh and Prem Vrat, Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 1-27. 7.
Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group, Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 3, March 2004, Pages 287-303. 8.
Silberglitt, R., Hove, A., and Shulman, P., Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 297-315. 9.
Rowe, G. and G. Wright, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999, Pages 353-375. 10.
Lena Börjeson, Mattias Höjer, Karl-Henrik Dreborg, Tomas...
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