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ITRPV Road Map March’13 | March 12
2013
| Summary of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic- March’13 | |
Contents 1. Executive Summary 3 2. PV learning curve and Cost reduction 3 2.1 Salient Points 3 3. Cost considerations 4 3.1 Cost Observations over the past 3 years 4 3.2 Way Forward 5 4. Results 2012 5 4.1 Materials 5 4.1.1 Materials – Crystallization and Wafering 5 4.2.2 Materials – Cell processing 5 4.3.3 Materials – Modules 6 4.2 Process 7 4.2.1 Process – Manufacturing 7 4.2.2 Process- Technology 8 4.3 Products 8 4.3.1 Growth forecast for different cell types 8 4.3.2 Growth forecast for different cell concepts 9 4.3.3 Growth forecast for different c-Si module types 10 4.3.4 Growth forecasts for different module sizes 11 6. PV Systems 11 7. Outlook 12 8. Conclusion 12
1. Executive Summary
The current Polysilicon price is less than $17/kg. The focus for reducing cost per Watt peak (Wp) remains on improving technology to increase module output power as well as on the more efficient use of all materials. The learning rate ( the decrease in prices of module with every doubling of module shipments) of 21% is expected to be maintained by introducing new double and single sided contact cell concepts with improved Si-wafers, improved cell front and rear side and improved module technologies. The module output power may go up to 300Wp by 2013.
2. PV learning curve and Cost reduction
The following curve explains the decrease in (sales price/Wp) in USD with increase in cumulative shipments
2.1 Salient Points * More than 100GW has been shipped out in 2012. * For every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases with a learning rate of 21%. * The latest data as on Jan 2013, at $0.69/Wp, an estimated 110GWp was shipped.
3. Cost considerations
The difference between the proportion of cost attributable to different module elements as a
2013
| Summary of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic- March’13 | |
Contents 1. Executive Summary 3 2. PV learning curve and Cost reduction 3 2.1 Salient Points 3 3. Cost considerations 4 3.1 Cost Observations over the past 3 years 4 3.2 Way Forward 5 4. Results 2012 5 4.1 Materials 5 4.1.1 Materials – Crystallization and Wafering 5 4.2.2 Materials – Cell processing 5 4.3.3 Materials – Modules 6 4.2 Process 7 4.2.1 Process – Manufacturing 7 4.2.2 Process- Technology 8 4.3 Products 8 4.3.1 Growth forecast for different cell types 8 4.3.2 Growth forecast for different cell concepts 9 4.3.3 Growth forecast for different c-Si module types 10 4.3.4 Growth forecasts for different module sizes 11 6. PV Systems 11 7. Outlook 12 8. Conclusion 12
1. Executive Summary
The current Polysilicon price is less than $17/kg. The focus for reducing cost per Watt peak (Wp) remains on improving technology to increase module output power as well as on the more efficient use of all materials. The learning rate ( the decrease in prices of module with every doubling of module shipments) of 21% is expected to be maintained by introducing new double and single sided contact cell concepts with improved Si-wafers, improved cell front and rear side and improved module technologies. The module output power may go up to 300Wp by 2013.
2. PV learning curve and Cost reduction
The following curve explains the decrease in (sales price/Wp) in USD with increase in cumulative shipments
2.1 Salient Points * More than 100GW has been shipped out in 2012. * For every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases with a learning rate of 21%. * The latest data as on Jan 2013, at $0.69/Wp, an estimated 110GWp was shipped.
3. Cost considerations
The difference between the proportion of cost attributable to different module elements as a