social and economic impacts of haiti and japan earthquakes
Social and Economic Impacts
Of
Haiti and Japan Earthquakes
Haiti
Social Impacts
3 million people affected
Over 220.000 deaths
330.000 injured
1.3 million people made homeless
Several hospitals collapsed
Economic Impacts
30.000 commercial buildings collapsed
Business destroyed
Damage the main clothing industry
Airport an port damaged
Japan
Social Impacts
The disaster will weigh on Japan's economic growth through negative impact on consumption, capex projection, and lower capacity to ship export. On the other hand, reconstruction demand in the phase of recovery will have positive impact on reconstruction of housing, replacement of production equipments (i.e. capex), government expenditure, and public investment. If we aggregate those negative and positive impacts, quarterly real GDP growth will be pushed down by a total of -2.1% points for Jan-Mar and Apr-Jun quarters. But reconstruction demand thereafter will push up real GDP growth rates for Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec quarters by a total of +0.9% points. Those said, we revise down our real GDP forecast for FY2011 to almost zero%. The earthquake will have negative impact both on actual household consumption expenditure and on their sentiments, which, in turn, will make households increase precautionary saving. However, strong reconstruction demand in the recovery phase will result in a +2.3% real GDP growth for FY2012. On the price front, we point out that the impact of the disaster will be inflationary rather than deflationary.
The BOJ has been very active in providing ample liquidity and, as of 22 Mar, the BOJ has provided a total of JPY40 trillion through same-day start liquidity provisioning operations. There has been declining amount of bids to those operations, showing that demand for liquidity for immediate needs have been stabilized thanks to those massive liquidity provisioning operations. As a result, the BOJ's current account balance exceeded JPY41 trillion as of 22 Mar and
Of
Haiti and Japan Earthquakes
Haiti
Social Impacts
3 million people affected
Over 220.000 deaths
330.000 injured
1.3 million people made homeless
Several hospitals collapsed
Economic Impacts
30.000 commercial buildings collapsed
Business destroyed
Damage the main clothing industry
Airport an port damaged
Japan
Social Impacts
The disaster will weigh on Japan's economic growth through negative impact on consumption, capex projection, and lower capacity to ship export. On the other hand, reconstruction demand in the phase of recovery will have positive impact on reconstruction of housing, replacement of production equipments (i.e. capex), government expenditure, and public investment. If we aggregate those negative and positive impacts, quarterly real GDP growth will be pushed down by a total of -2.1% points for Jan-Mar and Apr-Jun quarters. But reconstruction demand thereafter will push up real GDP growth rates for Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec quarters by a total of +0.9% points. Those said, we revise down our real GDP forecast for FY2011 to almost zero%. The earthquake will have negative impact both on actual household consumption expenditure and on their sentiments, which, in turn, will make households increase precautionary saving. However, strong reconstruction demand in the recovery phase will result in a +2.3% real GDP growth for FY2012. On the price front, we point out that the impact of the disaster will be inflationary rather than deflationary.
The BOJ has been very active in providing ample liquidity and, as of 22 Mar, the BOJ has provided a total of JPY40 trillion through same-day start liquidity provisioning operations. There has been declining amount of bids to those operations, showing that demand for liquidity for immediate needs have been stabilized thanks to those massive liquidity provisioning operations. As a result, the BOJ's current account balance exceeded JPY41 trillion as of 22 Mar and