Nicholas Eberstadt The Demographic Future
Government and Its Role
The Demographic Future by Nicholas Eberstadt (Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2010)
Submitted For: International Business Environments Professor Andrew R. Thomas
Submitted By: Joe F. Dolder
October 2, 2012
Joe F. Dolder
October 2, 2012
Article Overview3
Utilizing current population statistics, mortality rates, and fertility rates, Nicholas Eberstadt projects the global demographic future for the next 20 years and what this future portends is a series of social and economic problems relating to a contracting work-force and an aging population. The century leading up to the Baby Boom generation saw an explosion in population stemming largely from medical and nutritional improvements. While birthrates …show more content…
What is striking about the global decline in fertility rates is that they are not confined to the developed world. While virtually the entire developed world has fertility rates that are at or below replacement levels, this accounts for less than 20% of the world’s population. The vast majority of countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are in low-income countries such as China. This lack of socioeconomic correlation with fertility rates makes it difficult to predict when a country will enter such a state and how long it will last. This lack of socioeconomic correlation may be due to the developed world’s intervention in low-income and third world nations, both culturally and in the subsidized distribution of birth-control, abortifacients, and abortion services. A shrinking population due to reduced fertility rates invariably means an aging population. These two factors adumbrate a host of problems. An older workforce generally means a less healthy, less educated, and less tech-savvy workforce. Additionally, a dwindling working age population will mean that inefficiencies in …show more content…
While the particulars of each country’s demographic situation are varied, in all cases the pervading problems can be distilled into two questions: how to make the most efficient use of available human capital and how to manage government entitlements without sinking the public sector into onerous debt. Government is in a unique position to tackle these issues or at least give strong assistance, but in addressing them there are also several pitfalls that it must be wary of. In light of these concerns, five suggestions are submitted: 1. Encourage the aging workforce to keep contributing/working. 2. Gradually move to eliminate defined benefit plans in favor of defined contribution plans for retirement, especially in the public sector. 3. Move away from state capitalism. 4. Work to achieve a commonsense, progressive tax code. 5. Invest in infrastructure, not cronyism. This list is by no means exhaustive nor will all of the nuances of each item be discussed, as both of these would be beyond the scope of this
The Demographic Future by Nicholas Eberstadt (Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2010)
Submitted For: International Business Environments Professor Andrew R. Thomas
Submitted By: Joe F. Dolder
October 2, 2012
Joe F. Dolder
October 2, 2012
Article Overview3
Utilizing current population statistics, mortality rates, and fertility rates, Nicholas Eberstadt projects the global demographic future for the next 20 years and what this future portends is a series of social and economic problems relating to a contracting work-force and an aging population. The century leading up to the Baby Boom generation saw an explosion in population stemming largely from medical and nutritional improvements. While birthrates …show more content…
What is striking about the global decline in fertility rates is that they are not confined to the developed world. While virtually the entire developed world has fertility rates that are at or below replacement levels, this accounts for less than 20% of the world’s population. The vast majority of countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are in low-income countries such as China. This lack of socioeconomic correlation with fertility rates makes it difficult to predict when a country will enter such a state and how long it will last. This lack of socioeconomic correlation may be due to the developed world’s intervention in low-income and third world nations, both culturally and in the subsidized distribution of birth-control, abortifacients, and abortion services. A shrinking population due to reduced fertility rates invariably means an aging population. These two factors adumbrate a host of problems. An older workforce generally means a less healthy, less educated, and less tech-savvy workforce. Additionally, a dwindling working age population will mean that inefficiencies in …show more content…
While the particulars of each country’s demographic situation are varied, in all cases the pervading problems can be distilled into two questions: how to make the most efficient use of available human capital and how to manage government entitlements without sinking the public sector into onerous debt. Government is in a unique position to tackle these issues or at least give strong assistance, but in addressing them there are also several pitfalls that it must be wary of. In light of these concerns, five suggestions are submitted: 1. Encourage the aging workforce to keep contributing/working. 2. Gradually move to eliminate defined benefit plans in favor of defined contribution plans for retirement, especially in the public sector. 3. Move away from state capitalism. 4. Work to achieve a commonsense, progressive tax code. 5. Invest in infrastructure, not cronyism. This list is by no means exhaustive nor will all of the nuances of each item be discussed, as both of these would be beyond the scope of this