Montecarlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim
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10.1 RISKSIM OVERVIEW
RiskSim is a Monte Carlo Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel 2000–2010 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2004 (Macintosh). RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model, automates Monte Carlo simulation, and creates charts. Your spreadsheet model may include various uncontrollable uncertainties as input assumptions (e.g., demand for a new product, uncertain variable cost of production, competitor reaction), and you can use simulation to determine the uncertainty associated with the model's output (e.g., annual profit). RiskSim automates the simulation by trying hundreds of what-ifs consistent with your assessment of the uncertainties. To use RiskSim, you (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) create a spreadsheet model optionally use SensIt to identify critical inputs enter one of RiskSim's fourteen random number generator functions in each input cell of your model in Excel 2007 or 2010, choose Add-Ins | Risk Simulation | One Output; in Excel 2003 and earlier versions, choose Tools | Risk Simulation | One Output from Excel's menu specify the model output cell and the number of what-if trials interpret RiskSim's histogram and cumulative distribution charts.
RiskSim facilitates Monte Carlo simulation by providing: Fourteen random number generator functions Ability to set the seed for random number generation Automatic repeated sampling for simulation Frequency distribution of simulation results Histogram and cumulative distribution charts All of RiskSim’s functionality, including its built-in help, is a part of the RiskSim XLA file. There is no separate setup file or help file. When you use RiskSim on a Windows computer, it does not create any Windows Registry entries (although Excel may use such entries to keep track of its addins).
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Chapter 10 Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim
10.2 USING RISKSIM FUNCTIONS
RiskSim adds fourteen random number generator functions to
10
10.1 RISKSIM OVERVIEW
RiskSim is a Monte Carlo Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel 2000–2010 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2004 (Macintosh). RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model, automates Monte Carlo simulation, and creates charts. Your spreadsheet model may include various uncontrollable uncertainties as input assumptions (e.g., demand for a new product, uncertain variable cost of production, competitor reaction), and you can use simulation to determine the uncertainty associated with the model's output (e.g., annual profit). RiskSim automates the simulation by trying hundreds of what-ifs consistent with your assessment of the uncertainties. To use RiskSim, you (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) create a spreadsheet model optionally use SensIt to identify critical inputs enter one of RiskSim's fourteen random number generator functions in each input cell of your model in Excel 2007 or 2010, choose Add-Ins | Risk Simulation | One Output; in Excel 2003 and earlier versions, choose Tools | Risk Simulation | One Output from Excel's menu specify the model output cell and the number of what-if trials interpret RiskSim's histogram and cumulative distribution charts.
RiskSim facilitates Monte Carlo simulation by providing: Fourteen random number generator functions Ability to set the seed for random number generation Automatic repeated sampling for simulation Frequency distribution of simulation results Histogram and cumulative distribution charts All of RiskSim’s functionality, including its built-in help, is a part of the RiskSim XLA file. There is no separate setup file or help file. When you use RiskSim on a Windows computer, it does not create any Windows Registry entries (although Excel may use such entries to keep track of its addins).
98
Chapter 10 Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim
10.2 USING RISKSIM FUNCTIONS
RiskSim adds fourteen random number generator functions to