Modelling Nhs Data for Accident and Emergency Departments to Reduce Attendances and Costs in Twelve London Trusts.
Business Forecasting and Modelling
Modelling NHS Data for Accident and Emergency Departments to Reduce Attendances and Costs in Twelve London Trusts.
Forecasting – Long denigrated as a waste of time at best and a sin at worst – became an absolute necessity in the course of the seventeenth century for adventuresome entrepreneurs who were willing to take the risk of shaping the future according to their own design. (Bernstein, P. 1996) K0750834 May 2010
Business Forecasting and Modelling
Confidential
Executive Summary
This report will look at the various attendances at Accident and Emergency Departments of a number of NHS Acute Trusts in the London region. As it is understood that the NHS in London has had a great deal of difficulty with accurate reporting of patient figures for the past several years, only those Trusts with accurate and (mostly) complete data will be considered for this report. Furthermore, data from before 2005 is deemed to be so incomplete and of such varying accuracy that it is not included in this report 1. The paper has been commissioned as the wider London NHS needs to understand the trends in patient flows to A&E Departments in order to model new care pathways to lead to a reduction in the cost of overall NHS care in London. Attendances at A&E are up to ten times more expensive that Primary Care appointments (GP, Dentist, Pharmacy, Specialist Clinic, etc) and the abuse of the A&E system is leading to a diminishing available budget for care of the London population. Recently, schemes such as NHS Direct and various Walk In Centres and Polyclinics 2 have all allowed Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to make savings in their commissioning budgets, and these funds have been used to finance further patient care. This paper models the expected attendance of patients at twelve of the London Trusts and seeks to outline to PCTs the various areas in which attendances are expected to rise up to the end of 2012 (calendar year). 2012 is a very
Modelling NHS Data for Accident and Emergency Departments to Reduce Attendances and Costs in Twelve London Trusts.
Forecasting – Long denigrated as a waste of time at best and a sin at worst – became an absolute necessity in the course of the seventeenth century for adventuresome entrepreneurs who were willing to take the risk of shaping the future according to their own design. (Bernstein, P. 1996) K0750834 May 2010
Business Forecasting and Modelling
Confidential
Executive Summary
This report will look at the various attendances at Accident and Emergency Departments of a number of NHS Acute Trusts in the London region. As it is understood that the NHS in London has had a great deal of difficulty with accurate reporting of patient figures for the past several years, only those Trusts with accurate and (mostly) complete data will be considered for this report. Furthermore, data from before 2005 is deemed to be so incomplete and of such varying accuracy that it is not included in this report 1. The paper has been commissioned as the wider London NHS needs to understand the trends in patient flows to A&E Departments in order to model new care pathways to lead to a reduction in the cost of overall NHS care in London. Attendances at A&E are up to ten times more expensive that Primary Care appointments (GP, Dentist, Pharmacy, Specialist Clinic, etc) and the abuse of the A&E system is leading to a diminishing available budget for care of the London population. Recently, schemes such as NHS Direct and various Walk In Centres and Polyclinics 2 have all allowed Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to make savings in their commissioning budgets, and these funds have been used to finance further patient care. This paper models the expected attendance of patients at twelve of the London Trusts and seeks to outline to PCTs the various areas in which attendances are expected to rise up to the end of 2012 (calendar year). 2012 is a very
References: Fitkov-Norris, E., and Robson, D. (2009) MBA Lecture Slides, Kingston Business School, Kingston. Bernstein, P. (1996) Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, New York, Wiley Chatfield, C. (1996). The Analysis of Time Series – Fifth Edition, Chapman & Hall, New York. Darzi, A. (2007). Healthcare for London – A Framework for Action, , Accessed on the 30th April 2010. Online at Hanke, J. E., and Wichern, D. W., (2009) Business Forecasting – Ninth Edition, Pearson Education Ltd, ` Hitt, M. A., Freeman, R. E., and Harrison, J. S. (eds), (2005) The Blackwell Handbook of Strategic Management, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford. Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., and Hyndman, R. J., (1998) Forecasting: Methods and Applications – Third Edition, John Wiley and Sons Inc, New York. Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., and McGee, V. E., (1983) Forecasting, Methods and Applications – Second Edition, John Wiley and Sons Inc, New York. Morris, C., (2003) Quantitative Approaches in Business Studies – Seventh Edition, Pearson Education, Harlow. Oakshott, L., (2001) Essential Quantitative Methods for Business Management and Finance – Second Edition, Palgrave, New York. Also Used: Confidential Authors, (2009) Internal Commissioning Support for London Briefing Paper on Data Quality in London Provider Trusts, Not Published. Confidential Emails from Provider Trusts to Head of Service Management and Operations at CSL. K0750834 86