Impact Bias Essay

幻灯片1
Impact Bias in Affective Forecasting

幻灯片2

Contents:
1. Memory and Prospection Systems
2. Impact bias
 2.1 Definition
 2.2 Causes of the impact bias
3. Impact bias and loss aversion
4. The way to reduce impact bias
5. Arguments
6. Conclusion

幻灯片3
1. Memory and Prospection Systems
Memory and Prospection Systems
According to the defination of human memory systems, there are two parts of human memory system.

Declarative memory

Non-declarative memory

幻灯片4

Non-declarative memory has low flexibility.
It can be treated as a certain behavior

Declarative memory is more flexibility and can be controlled by people's emotions and memories.

幻灯片5

Declarative memory can be divided into semantic memory and episodic memory.
Impact bias is one of the well-know and widely accepted affective forecasting error.

幻灯片7
2.1 Definition
Definition of impact bias:
Impact bias is a tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional responses to future events.

幻灯片8
2.1. Causes of the impact bias
1. Framing effects
People focus too much on features that differentiate the alternatives and too little on features they share.

Dunn et al. (2012) designed a test that asks the college students to predict how happy they will be in one year when they randomly assigned to desirable and undesirable dormitories.

幻灯片9

Results

幻灯片10

2. Focalism
When people predict their emotional reactions to an event, they may ignore some unrelated events which will influence their emotions in different side.

幻灯片11

3. Sense-making
Sense making processes are psychological processes which make people's sense back to mature