Evolution Of Hurricanes

In the recent years there has been a focus on hurricanes because they have gradually gotten stronger in the past years. Scientists became more alarmed during the latest hurricane seasons because they believe they have seen the effects of the global temperatures on hurricanes. In recent years hurricanes ravaged the earth breaking records all around the world. Japan broke its previous record of 6 typhoons with 10 in 2004(Trenberth 2005). Before the 2005 hurricane season there had never been record of a hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, but on that year Brazil encountered its first hurricane. Also in 2005, the US saw its largest number of named storms, 27, the largest number of hurricanes, 14, and it has been the only year with three category
In his figure 4 he states that the number of category 1 hurricanes stays stagnant throughout the years but has decreased as a percentage total number of hurricane in 35 years (Webster 2005). He goes on to explain that the trend of category 2 and 3 is minimal in both actual numbers and percentage. On the other hand category 4 and 5 hurricanes have almost doubled in number and in proportion (Webster 2005). These changes have occurred in all the ocean basins not just in the North Atlantic like many studies suggest. In table 1 from Webster’s same study he goes on to explain and break down how from 1975 to 1989 there were less category 4 and 5 hurricanes than in 1990 to 2004. For example, in the West Pacific Ocean during 1975 to 1989 there were a total of 85 category 4 and 5 hurricanes; from 1990 to 2004 there was a great increase from 85 to 116. This pattern is evident throughout the table with total numbers and percentages supporting the conclusion that Webster wanted to prove in his paper which is that hurricanes will become more intense as sea surface temperatures increase
In the study done by Emanuel, Sundararajan, and Williams in 2008 they concluded that the frequency of the hurricanes will diminish but their intensity will increase in some locations. Emanuel’s later studies published in 2007 and 2005 also expresses there is a trend in increasing numbers of storms and their intensity. Webster expresses in his research paper that he agrees there is a 30 year trend towards more frequent and intense hurricanes (Webster 2005). On the other hand, researchers like Anthes and Pielke are more apprehensive about making conclusions about whether there is an actual trend or not. Anthes states in his study that that no one event or single season should be attributed to changes in climate (2006). He goes on to say that it is too early to accept or to deny that hurricanes are linked to global warming. Pielke declares that it is too premature to make conclusions on this topic and gives three reasons in his paper (2005). He believes that there is no connection between green house gasses and the behavior of hurricanes, that there is scientific consensus that there will be changes in hurricane intensity but it will most likely be small, and lastly that the population’s perception of hurricanes are dwarfed by the influence of its own projections of growing wealth and