Ethical Issues in Forecasting and Decision Analysis

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ETHICAL ISSUES
IN FORECASTING AND DECISION ANALYSIS

Dunal M. McCurdy
MBA 615- Business Foundations
November 24, 2011

ETHICAL ISSUES
IN FORECASTING AND DECISION ANALYSIS

It is especially important to think about the most critical causes of the problem in making your forecasts and decisions. The process of forecasting involves using observations about the problem situation to predict the outcomes of your own actions, the actions of others, and the outcomes of other situational factors at play. Forecasting is especially critical in making decisions about problems with ethical implications because these types of problems often have significant consequences for the decision-maker, and other people, including the groups, and even the organizations involved. Forecasting is critically important to ethical decision-making. Because ethical problems tend to carry major consequences for all of the people, groups, and organizations involved, it is important for people to consider the outcomes of their actions and the actions of others when making a decision in these types of situations, if you do not think about outcomes, you are likely to make a bad decision. Interestingly, while most people predict that time pressure is detrimental to complex cognitive processes, time pressure may not impact forecasting or ethical decision-making. In almost every case of ethical misconduct, the researcher says “I ran out of time; I couldn’t think through the problem”. These results suggest that time pressure is no excuse. In fact, as long as a person can identify the critical causes, forecasting and ethical decision-making improves. Indeed, some research has demonstrated that crisis situations actually induce people to identify critical causes; the pressure allows them to focus only on what is most important. Thus, time pressure is not detrimental to all cognitive activities, under all circumstances....
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