Emarketer the Global Media Intelligence Report 2011

The Global Media Intelligence Report

October 2011

Executive Summary
For many advertisers and marketers, 2010 brought a welcome return to growth after the global recession. 2011 was widely expected to continue this positive trend, as the world’s economic cycle gathered upward momentum.
In fact, developments this year have been more complex and disturbing. In several major markets—including the US and the UK—the specter of a double-dip recession is casting a dark shadow over businesses and consumers. In Western Europe, the extreme indebtedness of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain threatens to undermine the entire eurozone. Japan is struggling to regain its footing after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. And many emerging nations are feeling a financial squeeze due to belt tightening in their export markets. Such turbulence typically puts the brakes on advertising spending to some degree. But global ad spending will still approach $500 billion this year, eMarketer estimates. Marketers, though, are under greater pressure than ever to deliver optimum returns on their media investments. Knowing the media preferences and behaviors of specific target audiences is vital to this task. Understanding the evolving patterns of ad spending at a macro level is crucial, too. The Global Media Intelligence report aims to highlight such essential information so marketers can assess key markets worldwide. A number of top-level trends are evident around the globe. Among them:
■■ Emerging

Of course, each region presents distinct challenges and opportunities.
■■ In

North America the average consumer is an experienced multitasker, accustomed to using several media platforms every day—often simultaneously. For advertisers, success in the region depends on mastering the increasingly complex interaction between multiple strands of marketing and on building relationships with audiences wary of advertising, per se. But the omnipresence of media also enables marketers to grab consumers’ attention as never before, and to follow their every move as they evaluate brands, products and purchase options. Europe shares many of North America’s characteristics. Moreover, its population, like that of North America, is relatively affluent. Yet there are often major differences in culture and media penetration from one country to another, as well as variations in online and mobile habits. Regional marketers need to fine-tune their strategies accordingly for optimum results. Europe has been caught between Western influences and older, Soviet-era ones. This is still the case. Traditional media command large audiences, while the internet has a promising foothold. Advertising is less developed than in Western Europe or North America—yet in many countries in Eastern Europe, mobile is the most popular media channel. The bottom line: This region is ripe for marketing innovation, and there is plenty of room to experiment, even on small budgets.

■■ Western

■■ Historically, Eastern

markets, such as those in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, continue to claim an ever-increasing share of global ad spending. This transition has accelerated as growth in many Western economies has faltered. A number of advertisers are shifting their focus to countries with expanding populations and rising levels of consumption. advertising will remain a star performer. In most mature markets, growth in online ad spending outpaced all other platforms in 2010. In a few less developed countries, however, web penetration remains low and internet advertising is still embryonic. Where this scenario coexists with national economic difficulties, many advertisers will be tempted to stick with traditional media in the short term. devices are transforming the media landscape in every corner of the world. But mobile usage patterns can vary widely, even within a single region. Marketers should be alert to the gender balance in mobile audiences, for example. Similarly, the link between affluence and smartphone or mobile web adoption seen in many Western nations is not always a foregone conclusion in other regions.
The Global Media Intelligence Report

■■ Digital

■■ Like

■■ Mobile

Eastern Europe, Latin America registered rather low internet penetration in 2010, but reasonably high levels of mobile use. Unlike Europe, the region has an exploding population and an advertising sector growing at more than double the worldwide average rate. Across the continent, mobile looks set to play a vital role in bringing consumers of all income levels online. But well-established media platforms—TV in particular—still play a central role in daily life, especially among older residents. Advertisers in Latin America will face tricky decisions as mobile and online usage combine to rival the undoubted clout of TV.

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i

Executive Summary
■■ Overall, media

ASIA-PACIFIC

OVERVIEW Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan South Korea

AP-2 AP-4 AP-9 AP-16 AP-19 AP-24 AP-27 AP-34 EE-2 EE-3 EE-6 EE-9 EE-12 EE-15 EE-22 EE-27 EE-30 LA-2 LA-4 LA-10 LA-14 LA-18 LA-21 LA-27 LA-31 MA-2 MA-3 MA-7 MA-11 NA-2 NA-3 NA-10 WE-2 WE-3 WE-6 WE-12 WE-19 WE-23 WE-30 WE-33 WE-35 WE-42

penetration in the Middle East and Africa is lower than in any other region. Many countries there suffer from less-than-robust communications infrastructure, especially where broadband is concerned, so this is often cited as an area where mobile will take the place of PCbased web connections. Indeed, Africa is already famous for innovations in mobile payment systems that enable less affluent residents to handle their financial affairs in remote areas. Advertisers can do more to capitalize on the region’s growing mobile population, though traditional media will remain the key focus for many brands. the world’s foremost growth engine. China and India, each with a population above 1 billion, represent truly enormous audiences, and the potential for engaging with aspiring consumers on this scale is unprecedented. At the same time, smaller Asian nations and territories—Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea, for example—have been setting the pace of digital and mobile innovation for years. As a result, the region is full of promise, although media penetration is patchy.

EASTERN EUROPE

OVERVIEW Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Slovakia Turkey Ukraine

■■ Thanks to its rising economic output, Asia-Pacific has become

LATIN AMERICA

OVERVIEW Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela

As 2012 approaches, marketers everywhere are reviewing their budgets and weighing their options. Cost-effectiveness is paramount. The Global Media Intelligence report presents a broad selection of data to help planners evaluate the relative merits of media platforms in specific markets and determine where and how to spend marketing dollars most effectively.

REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
Karin von Abrams Cliff Annicelli Joanne DiCamillo Mike Froggatt Stephanie Gehrsitz Dana Hill Elissa Hunter Natalie Marin-Sharp Chris McNinch Patrick Miller Jenni Pearson Nicole Perrin Susan Reiter Hilary Rengert Alison Smith Haixia Wang Senior Analyst Copy Editor Production Artist Research Analyst Production Artist Director of Production Editor Researcher Chart Data Specialist Webmaster Researcher Senior Editor Managing Editor Research Manager Director of Charts Forecasting Director

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

OVERVIEW Egypt Lebanon Saudi Arabia

NORTH AMERICA

OVERVIEW Canada US

WESTERN EUROPE

OVERVIEW Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain UK

STARCOM MEDIAVEST GROUP CONTRIBUTORS
Prentice Meinerding Kate Sirkin Global Research and Intelligence Manager EVP Global Research

ENDNOTES

The Global Media Intelligence Report

Copyright ©2011 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved.

ii

The Global Media Intelligence Report: Asia-Pacific

October 2011

Asia-Pacific
Most economies in Asia-Pacific enjoyed growth well above the global average in 2010. Regional GDP rose by 8.3% last year, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), thanks to a general revival of global trade and greater domestic consumer spending. The outlook is a little different in 2011. Inflation is rising in many countries, and falling demand for manufactured goods outside the region will begin to put the brakes on growth. Yet GDP will still rise an estimated 6.9% this year, and Asia-Pacific will likely remain the fastest-growing region by this metric between now and 2015.
Several factors are responsible for Asia-Pacific’s impressive growth rate, the EIU noted. First, government and consumer debt in the region are both relatively low. Second, most banks in the region were not as badly compromised by the global economic crisis as Western banks. Third, China has economic scale and momentum sufficient to lift the whole region. This will continue as China’s middle class expands and contributes a growing share of national spending. Finally, wages are rising in China, and many firms operating there are looking for alternative locations where production costs remain relatively low. Most turn to other countries in Asia-Pacific. This investment helps drive production and consumption in second-tier regional economies. Against this background of solid, sustainable growth, advertisers are generally upbeat and marketing is booming. GroupM’s “This Year, Next Year Worldwide Summer 2011” report forecast that regional ad spending would reach a hefty $157 billion in 2011. Total media ad spending in Asia-Pacific will rise by 6.5% this year, eMarketer estimates, and by 8.5% in 2012. After that, annual growth rates will decline gradually through 2015. But Asia will be a major beneficiary of the continuing shift in economic power from highly developed Western countries to emerging markets. North America and Western Europe, which together accounted for over 58% of all ad spending in 2010, will see that portion shrink to 53% by 2015. During that time, Asia-Pacific’s slice of global spending will grow by almost 3 percentage points, from 28.9% to 31.7%.
Total Media Ad Spending in Asia-Pacific, 2010-2015 billions, % change and % share
2010 Asia-Pacific —% change —% share Worldwide $137.4 7.0% 28.9% $475.7 2011 $146.3 6.5% 29.0% $496.9 2012 $158.8 8.5% 30.0% $529.5 2013 $169.9 7.0% 30.7% $552.5 2014 $180.6 6.3% 31.1% $579.8 2015 $191.4 6.0% 31.7% $603.1

Note: includes directories, internet, magazines, newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV Source: eMarketer, June 2011
130940 www.eMarketer.com

Despite high penetration rates in countries like Japan and South Korea, internet penetration in Asia-Pacific overall is nowhere near the levels seen in more developed regions. Less than a quarter of Asia-Pacific residents will use the internet in 2011, according to eMarketer figures. But because the regional population is so large, even that small proportion translates to very significant numbers of web users. This year alone, the number of individuals going online at least once per month will reach 945 million. By 2015, the online community will grow by a further 53%, to 1.45 billion. With the online population on a steep upward trajectory, the region’s advertisers are also rushing into digital media. eMarketer estimates online ad spending in Asia-Pacific will exceed $19 billion in 2011. Spending on digital ads will nearly double by 2015, to $34.6 billion.

The Global Media Intelligence Report

Copyright ©2011 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved.

AP-2

Asia-Pacific
For many people, Asia is synonymous with advanced mobile technologies, such as world-beating mobile internet access and sophisticated mobile payment services. Of course, mobile usage levels vary substantially from one country to another. At least 83% of individuals in South Korea and Japan will use a mobile phone this year, eMarketer estimates, while India will register just 52% penetration. But markets with lower mobile usage are catching up fast. Within four years, mobile phone penetration in Asia-Pacific will climb from an estimated 55.4% to nearly 73%, and the region will boast an eye-popping 2.9 billion mobile phone users.
Mobile Phone User Penetration in Asia-Pacific, by Country, 2009-2015 % of population in each group
90

70

50

2009

2010

2011 84.5% 83.0% 70.3% 57.1% 52.0% 52.6% 55.4%

2012 85.0% 84.0% 71.3% 63.4% 58.0% 55.2% 60.3%

2013 85.5% 85.0% 72.3% 68.7% 64.0% 57.9% 64.8%

2014 86.0% 86.0% 73.3% 73.5% 68.0% 60.5% 68.5%

2015 86.5% 87.0% 74.3% 78.0% 72.0% 64.7% 72.6%

South Korea 83.0% 84.0% Japan 81.0% Australia 68.7% China 43.4% India 31.0% Other 46.6% 49.4% Asia-Pacific 42.5% 49.7% 69.3% 50.5% 44.0% 82.0%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month Source: eMarketer, April 2011
126389 www.eMarketer.com

Not all mobile phone users want or need to access the web via their handsets, and eMarketer expects that through 2015, fewer than half of Asia-Pacific’s mobile owners will use their phones to go online. Nonetheless, the mobile internet audience in the region is already massive—estimated at 623 million in 2011—and currently growing by least 150 million people per year. It will pass the 1 billion mark in 2014.

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AP-3

Australia
■

Australian GDP showed a modest increase of 2.7% in 2010, the EIU reported. But the country is vulnerable to global economic trends, and also faces major public-sector costs following severe floods in Queensland and Victoria early this year. According to EIU projections, GDP growth will slow to 1.9% in 2011, before rebounding to an average 3.3% between 2012 and 2015. Despite the predicted blow to GDP growth this year, the advertising market will not suffer to the same extent. Estimates of total measured media ad spending in 2011 range from $12.1 billion (MAGNAGLOBAL, June 2011 and ZenithOptimedia, July 2011) to $13.5 billion (GroupM, July 2011), with single-digit rises in ad spending forecast for 2011 and 2012. There is similar consensus on digital ad spending, with 2011 predictions grouped between $2.3 billion (IAB Australia, August 2011) and $2.9 billion (GroupM, July 2011). The online ad boom will continue in 2012, as spending is projected to increase by at least 13%, according to all sources. With digital advertising growth outpacing the market overall, the web is rapidly claiming a greater share of total ad spending. According to ZenithOptimedia, online will account for 20.4% of the total this year, and 25.4% in 2015. Time spent with the web and mobile phones is helping to erode consumption of more traditional media. The reach of newspapers, magazines and radio has declined markedly in recent years, according to Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, while free-to-air and pay-TV just managed to maintain 2005 levels of penetration. In 2010, all media channels enjoyed a broad reach across adult age groups. The internet and pay-TV, however, attracted the highest proportions of affluent users. Nearly 70% of Australia’s residents will be online at least once a month in 2011, eMarketer estimates, but the internet population remains relatively flat, currently growing at less than 1 percentage point per year. Even in Australia’s advanced online culture, broadband has taken great strides in the past two years, with subscriptions up 22% in 2009 and 16% in 2010. eMarketer estimates more than 88% of households will have high-speed web access this year. By 2015, that proportion will approach 95%.

■

Mobile subscription penetration in Australia has been above 100% for some time. In 2010, an estimated 22.5 million mobile phone subscriptions were distributed among 14.9 million mobile users. As with web usage, though, eMarketer has forecast minimal growth in mobile subscriptions during the next few years.

■

POPULATION
Population in Australia, 2000-2020 millions
30

■

22.8 20.2
20

23.9

21.5

19.1

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

■

Note: population as of July for each year Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base, Dec 1, 2010
128930 www.eMarketer.com

■

■

The Global Media Intelligence Report

Copyright ©2011 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved.

AP-4

Australia

MEDIA
Media Penetration in Australia, 2000, 2005 & 2010 % of population
2000 TV viewers* Mobile phone owners Internet users** Magazine readers Newspaper readers*** Radio listeners* Pay-TV subscribers 93.4% 51.0% 39.6% 88.1% 85.0% 68.9% 21.3% 2005 92.5% 78.4% 64.6% 85.9% 83.8% 65.2% 25.1% 2010 92.1% 85.7% 81.9% 78.7% 72.1% 60.0% 25.0%

INTERNET
Internet Users and Penetration in Australia, 2009-2015 millions and % of population
14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2

67.6%

68.8%

69.7%

70.5%

70.9%

71.1%

71.3%

Note: ages 18+; *used on a normal weekday; **used in the past 3 months, 2000 & 2005 data is for home only; ***read in the past 7 days, excludes community newspapers Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, Dec 2010; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, July 2011
131321 www.eMarketer.com

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Internet users

% of population

Demographic Profile of Media Users in Australia, 2010 % of total
Internet users* Mobile phone owners TV viewers** Pay-TV subscribers Radio listeners** Magazine readers Newspaper readers***

Note: individuals of any age who use the internet from any location via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, March 2011
125652 www.eMarketer.com

Gender Male Female Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+