Egypt Economic and Political Outlook 2011-2012
POLITICAL STABILITY: Egypt has entered a period of heightened political instability, which will continue for the first half of the forecast period. The popular uprising, which led to the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, the former president, was a momentous event unparalleled in the modern history of Egypt. Mr. Mubarak’s resignation on February 11th was expedited after the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces put pressure on him to stand down. The army council, headed by Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi, has dissolved parliament and will govern by constitutional decree until it hands power over to an elected civilian government. New parliamentary and presidential elections were scheduled to take place in September and possibly December, respectively, but the army has now delayed the legislative election until November. ELECTION WATCH: The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces dissolved the National Democratic Party-dominated parliament following Mr. Mubarak’s resignation in February. In mid-March a majority voted in favor of a package of amendments to the constitution in a referendum, paving the way for a legislative election to be held in September and a presidential election to follow. However, following a new outbreak of mass protests, the army council decided to postpone the parliamentary election, although it is still scheduled to go ahead before the end of the year. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: In the wake of the revolution, Egypt received pledges of political and economic support from key international players seeking to facilitate its transition to a more democratic system. The US, the World Bank and the IMF committed to providing Egypt with billions of US dollars of financial assistance. Egypt’s subsequent decision to turn down help from the IMF and the World Bank will not have an adverse effect on its relations with the multilateral organisations and they are likely to come to its aid again in the future if required....
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