Derivative Case Study

Derivatives Debacles
Case Studies of Large Losses in Derivatives Markets
Anatoli Kuprianov

To avoid all mistakes in the conduct of great enterprises is beyond man’s powers. Plutarch, Lives: Fabius.

ecent years have witnessed numerous accounts of derivatives-related losses on the part of established and reputable firms. These episodes have precipitated concern, and even alarm, over the recent rapid growth of derivatives markets and the dangers posed by the widespread use of such instruments. What lessons do these events hold for policymakers? Do they indicate the need for stricter government supervision of derivatives markets, or for new laws and regulations to limit the use of these instruments? A better understanding of the events surrounding recent derivatives debacles can help to answer such questions. This article presents accounts of two of the costliest and most highly publicized derivatives-related losses to date. The episodes examined involve the firms of Metallgesellschaft AG and Barings PLC. Each account begins with a review of the events leading to the derivatives-related loss in question, followed by an analysis of the factors responsible for the debacle. Both incidents raise a number of public policy questions: Can government intervention stop such incidents from happening again? Is it appropriate for the government even to try? And if so, what reforms are indicated? These issues are addressed at the end of each case study, where the lessons and public policy concerns highlighted by each episode are discussed.
Alex Mendoza assisted in the preparation of this article. Ned Prescott, John Walter, and John Weinberg provided valuable comments on earlier drafts. Any remaining errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly Volume

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