Decision of Uncertainty Paper

Topics: Probability, Probability theory, Conditional probability Pages: 3 (742 words) Published: May 25, 2011
Decision of Uncertainty Paper
All decision-making has some level of uncertainly. “Competent researchers and astute managers alike practice thinking habits that reflect sound reasoning—finding correct premises, testing the connections between their facts and assumptions, making claims based on adequate evidence” (Cooper & Schindler, 2006). Data from appropriate investigations can lead to high quality decisions with a lesser amount of uncertainty. Risks in everyday life can be reduced. Our daughter is turning two. We will be celebrating her birthday with a party at our home on April 9, 2011. We live in Connecticut and the climate in New England has a reputation for being rugged. The party is planned to be an outdoor gathering. I am interested in knowing what is the probability that it will rain on the day of my daughter’s birthday party given the current weather forecast. The April average for total rainfall plus snowfall in Middletown, CT is eleven days( n.d.) An extended (10 day) weather forecast shows a 40% chance of rain on April 9, 2011 ( n.d.). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the accuracy of 6-10 day precipitation forecasts for the continuous United States stands at 40%. Using probability statistical analysis, the decision to celebrate her birthday indoors or outdoors will be made. Probability Concepts and their Application

It is important to know the risks involved in a decision in order to make the most beneficial choice. “Helpful in this evaluation is probability theory which is often refereed to as the science on uncertainty” (Lind, Marchal, & Wathen, 2008). This is the number that explains the chance that something will happen. “Probability is used to mean the chance that a particular event (or set of events) will occur expressed on a linear scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty), also expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100%” (Math World, n.d.). There are two ways to appoint...
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