China Fragile Superpower

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China
Fragile Superpower

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Fragile Superpower
Susan L. Shirk

China

2007

Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2007 by Susan L. Shirk Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shirk, Susan L. China: fragile superpower / by Susan L. Shirk. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-530609-5 1. Nationalism—China. 2. China—Politics and government—2002– I. Title. JC311.S525 2007 320.951—dc22 2006027998

135798642 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

For Sam, Lucy, and David Popkin

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Contents

Acknowledgments

ix 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Strong Abroad but Fragile at Home China’s Economic Miracle Domestic Threats 35 13

The Echo Chamber of Nationalism: Media and the Internet 79 The Responsible Power 105

Japan: “When the Chinese People Get Angry, the Result Is Always Big Trouble” 140 Taiwan: “A Question of Regime Survival” 181

The United States: “External Troubles Can Become Internal Troubles” 212 China’s Weakness, America’s Danger 255 271

Appendix: Chinese and Japanese Periodicals Notes Index 273 311

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Acknowledgments

I

began writing this book as a fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California, during the 2004– 05 academic year. I am grateful to the Center staff (especially Kathleen Much), the other fellows, and Don Lamm for encouraging my interest in writing for a broader audience beyond academia. This aspiration became reality thanks to my research assistant, Yu Zheng, my agent, Jill Marsal, of the Djikstra Agency, and my editors at Oxford University Press—Peter Ginna, who edited the manuscript, Tim Bartlett, Dedi Felman, Tim Bent, and the copyeditor, Paula Cooper. The intellectual stimulation and personal support provided by colleagues and staff at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (especially Peter Cowhey, Stephan Haggard, and Barry Naughton), the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, and the U.S. government greatly contributed to the book. I also wish to thank Jeffrey Bader, Tai Ming Cheung, Thomas Christensen, and Andrew Walder for their helpful comments on the manuscript, and to Alastair Iain Johnston for sharing his unpublished research with me. My husband, Sam Popkin, and my children, Lucy Popkin and David Popkin (the newest China hand in the family), provided loving encouragement and good advice every step of the way. Finally, I am deeply grateful to the many Chinese government officials, military officers, scholars, think-tank experts, journalists, and students I interviewed for informing me and my readers about China’s domestic situation and foreign policy.

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China
Fragile Superpower

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1
Strong Abroad but Fragile at Home

S THE DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE responsible for American relations with China in...
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