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Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Regimes

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Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Regimes
Capital Account Liberalization and the Exchange Rate Regimes

Corresponding author: Associate Prof. Dr. Sule L. Aker Faculty of Business and Economics Eastern Mediterranean University Gazi Magusa, Mersin 10, Turkey sule.aker@emu.edu.tr tel: 00903926301260 fax: 00903923651017 Co-author: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ahmet H. Aker Cyprus International University Nicosia, Mersin 10, Turkey

Abstract
In this study, the relationship between short-term capital flows and currency hedging, interest rates and current account is analyzed. The results show that the major determinant of short-term capital movements is the market interest rates under floating exchange rate system and liberal capital account and free trade conditions. The short-term capital flows in the sample countries are tested with respect to exchange rates (currency hedging), interest rates, and current account.

Jel Classification: F0, F3, F4, G1

Key words: Hot money, short-term capital, exchange rates, economic liberalization, developing countries.

I. INTRODUCTION Globalization envisages an international economic and financial system where all factors of production move around the world freely and easily so that the global firms meet no obstacles on their way to maximize profits. In this framework, capital account liberalization was encouraged in developing countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela in late 1980`s and early 1990`s (Glick and Hutchison, 2005). Developed countries too, suspended capital controls in these two decades: UK (1979), Japan (1980), Australia and New Zealand (1983), Netherlands (1985), France, Sweden, and Denmark (1989), Belgium and Luxembourg (1990), Finland and Austria (1991), Portugal and Ireland (1993), Iceland (1994) removed restrictions on inflow of capital into the country and outflow of capital from their



References: Aizenman, Joshua, Ilan. 2009. “Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness.” Review of Development Economics, no. 13(2): 175-189. Aliber, R. Z. 2000. “Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, and the New Financial Architecture: Six Financial Crises in Search of a Generic Explanation.” Open Economic Review, no. 11(S1): 43-61. Blejer, M., Del Castillo, G. 1998. “Déjà Vu All Over Again? The Mexican Crises and the Stabilization of Uruguay in the 1970’s.” World Development, 26(3): 449--464. Calvo, G., Leiderman, H. L., Reinhart, C. 1996. “Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990’s.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10: 123--139. Demirguc-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E. 1998. “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility.”.In Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, ed. B. Pleskovic and J. Stiglitz. Washington DC: World Bank. Eichengreen, B., Rose, A., Wyplosz, C. 1995. “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks.” Economic Policy, 21: 249--296. Ferrandez-Arias, E. 1996. “The New Wave of Private Capital Inflows: Push or Pull?” Journal of Development Economics, 48(2): 389-418. Glick, R., Hutchison, M., Vinals J. 1996. “How Effective Are Capital Controls?” In Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, ed. J. A.Frankel, G. Galli, and A. Giovanninni. NBER Working Paper, No. 7413. Glick, R., Hutchison, M. 2000. “Stopping ‘Hot Money’ or Signalling Bad Policy? Capital Controls and the Onset of Currency Crises.” ideas.repec.org/p/kud/epruwp/00-14.html Glick, R., Hutchison, M Johnston, B. R. 1998. “Sequencing Capital Account Liberalizations and Financial Sector Reforms.” IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment, PPAA/18. Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S.,. Reinhart, C. M. 1998. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, no. 45 (1): 1-48. Krugman, P. 1998. “An Open Letter to Prime Minister Mahatir.” Fortune, no. 28. Krugman, P. 1998. “Saving Asia: It’s Time to Get Radical.” Fortune, no. 7: 74-80. Krugman, P. 1999. “Depression Economics Returns.” Foreign Affairs, no. 78 (1). McKinnon, R. 1991. The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to Market Economy. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press. Milliyet Gazetesi (9/4/2006): http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2006/09/01/ekonomi/aeko-htm Mundell, R Osakwe, P., Schembri, L. 1999. “Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico.” International Department of Bank of Canada. www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1999/wp99-10.html Quinn, D Reinhart, C., Tokatlidis, I. 2001 “Before and after Financial Liberalization.” www.wam.umd.edu/~creinhar/Papers/CR-Before%20and%20After%20Finan%20Lib.pdf Rodrik, D Rodrik, D., Velasco, A. 1999. “Short-term Capital Flows.” Paper prepared for ABCDE Conference at the World Bank. Rohwer, J. 1997. “The Dollar Rules.” Fortune, November 24: 41. Weller, C. 2001. “Financial Crises after Financial Liberalization: Exceptional Circumstances of Structural Weakness?” The Journal of Development Studies, no. 13 (57): 98-127. Wyplosz, C. 2001. “How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?” G-14 Discussion Paper Series, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, no. 14, September 2001. Date and place of birth: January 27, 1953 Education: BA in economics; Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA, 1975 Master in Economics, Bogaziçi University, İstanbul, Turkey, 1978. PhD in economics, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey, 1994 Employment: Ghosh, B. N. and Sule L. Aker (2006). “Future of North Cyprus: An Economic-Strategic Appraisal.” Futures, no. 38, Elsevier SCI LTD, pp. 1089-1102. Aker, Şule L., Ahmet Aker (2010), “Globalization and Global Currencies: Is US Dollar Losing Its Global Leadership?”, Global Governance, Labor Market Dynamics and Social Change: Essays in Honour of Emeritus Professor Ozay Mehmet, ed. by B. N. Ghosh.

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