Appendix

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  • Topic: Years in the future, 2010s, 2020s
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  • Published : January 11, 2013
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Appendix
Appendix

Contents
Table 1. Computed values for Demand41
Figure 1. Graph for Demand42
Table 2. Moving Average Technique43
Table 3. Linear Regression Analysis43
Table 4. Naive Method44
Table 5. Exponential Smoothing44
Table 6. Computed values for Supply45
Figure 2. Graph for Supply46
Table 7. Computed Values for Demand - Supply Gap47
Figure 3. Graph for Demand-Supply Gap48

Table 1. Computed values for Demand

Product Life Cycle Stage| Year| Population| Housing need| Informal Settlers Housing Need| (:| 2010| 860942| 195668.6364| 4969.983364|
| 2011| 927923.2876| 210891.6563| 5356.648069|
| 2012| 1000115.719| 227299.0271| 5773.395289|
| 2013| 1077924.722| 244982.8914| 6222.565443|
introduction| 2014| 1161787.266| 264042.5604| 6706.681034| | 2015| 1252174.315| 284585.0716| 7228.460818|
| 2016| 1349593.477| 306725.7902| 7790.83507|
| 2017| 1454591.849| 330589.0566| 8396.962039|
| 2018| 1567759.095| 356308.8852| 9050.245685|
growth| 2019| 1689730.753| 384029.7165| 9754.3548|
| 2020| 1821191.805| 413907.2285| 10513.2436|
| 2021| 1962880.528| 446109.2108| 11331.17396|
| 2022| 2115592.633| 480816.5074| 12212.73929|
| 2023| 2280185.74| 518224.0317| 13162.89041|
| 2024| 2457584.19| 558541.8614| 14186.96328|
| 2025| 2648784.24| 601996.4182| 15290.70902|
| 2026| 2854859.654| 648831.7395| 16480.32618|
| 2027| 3076967.735| 699310.8489| 17762.49556|
| 2028| 3316355.825| 753717.2329| 19144.41772|
maturity| 2029| 3574368.308| 812356.4336| 20633.85341| | 2030| 3852454.162| 875557.7642| 22239.16721|
| 2031| 4152175.096| 943676.1582| 23969.37442|
| 2032| 4475214.319| 1017094.163| 25834.19175|
| 2033| 4823385.993| 1096224.089| 27844.09187|
| 2034| 5198645.423| 1181510.323| 30010.36221|
| 2035| 5603100.037| 1273431.827| 32345.16839|
decline| 2036| 6039021.22| 1372504.823| 34861.6225|
| 2037| 6508857.071| 1479285.698| 37573.85673|
| 2038| 7015246.151| 1594374.125| 40497.10278|

Figure 1. Graph for Demand
Figure 1. Graph for Demand

year| actual| MA| MAD| MSE| MAPE|
2001| 10465| | | | |
2002| 11141| | | | |
2003| 15417| | | | |
2004| 16937| 12341| 4596| 21123216| 27.13586|
2005| 18715| 14498.33| 4216.666667| 17780277.78| 22.53095| 2006| 36120| 17023| 19097| 364695409| 52.87099|
2007| 19157| 23924| 4767| 22724289| -24.88385|
2008| 14482| 24664| 10182| 103673124| -70.30797|
2009| 23470| 23253| 217| 47089| 0.924585|
2010| 18733| 19036.33| 303.3333333| 92011.11111| -1.619246| 2011| 6044| 18895| 12851| 165148201| -212.6241|
error| | | 7,028.75| 99,326,230.98| (25.75)|
Table 2. Moving Average Technique

Table 3. Linear Regression Analysis
| | a+bx| a= -24054.7909| b= 12.75454545| |
year| actual| linear reg| MAD| MSE| MAPE|
2001| 10465| | | | |
2002| 11141| 1479.7181| 9661.2819| 272778.3831| 26.08801| 2003| 15417| 1492.4726| 13924.5274| 260638.2262| 25.48814| 2004| 16937| 1505.2271| 15431.7729| 248774.4058| 24.88887| 2005| 18715| 1517.9816| 17197.0184| 237186.9219| 24.29019| 2006| 36120| 1530.7361| 34589.2639| 225875.7746| 23.69212| 2007| 19157| 1543.4906| 17613.5094| 214840.9639| 23.09464| 2008| 14482| 1556.2451| 12925.7549| 204082.4897| 22.49775| 2009| 23470| 1568.9996| 21901.0004| 193600.352| 21.90146| 2010| 18733| 1581.7541| 17151.2459| 183394.5509| 21.30577| 2011| 6044| 1594.5086| 4449.4914| 173465.0863| 20.71066| | | TOTAL| 164844.8665| 2214637.154| 233.9576|

| | Error| 16,484.49| 221,463.72| 23.40|

Table 4. Naive Method
year| actual| naïve| MAD| MSE| MAPE|
2001| 10465| | | | |
2002| 11141| 1851| 9290| 86304100| 83.38569|
2003| 15417| 108| 15309|...
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