Ageing Populations – the Economic and Social Consequences
Ageing populations – the Economic and Social Consequences
Two hundred years ago Thomas Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population, in which he predicted a future of gloom and doom for humanity. Population growth, he said, would outstrip food supply, leading to widespread poverty and mass famine. About 30 years ago the Club of Rome, an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen, echoed his views, predicting that food, energy and raw materials would all run out in the face of the ever-growing population. In Malthus’s time the total world population was under 1 billion. On 12 October 1999 it was adjudged by the United Nations to have reached 6 billion.
A first response to the dire warnings of catastrophe is to observe that there is still more than enough food in the world to feed 6 billion people. Thirty years ago the global food output was the equivalent of 2,360 calories per person per day; today it is 2,740 calories – above the level considered necessary for healthy living.
However, up to two billion people in the world are going hungry because of the inadequate distribution of this food. Governments of some LEDCs can’t afford to buy food from the world market. Even if they could, their transport infrastructures are usually incapable of distributing it to the rural areas where it is most needed. In rural areas problems such as unequal land ownership and soil erosion are limiting the amount of food that poor farmers can grow.
Additionally the world’s population explosion is not over yet. Nine billion is the most likely prediction for total world population by 2050. More than 95% of the growth is expected to occur in LEDCs, and the bulk of the new births will take place in those countries that are the poorest, where governments are the least prepared and where problems of resource shortages are already most acute.
Although the doom-mongers may not (yet) have been proved right, population growth has nevertheless
Two hundred years ago Thomas Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population, in which he predicted a future of gloom and doom for humanity. Population growth, he said, would outstrip food supply, leading to widespread poverty and mass famine. About 30 years ago the Club of Rome, an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen, echoed his views, predicting that food, energy and raw materials would all run out in the face of the ever-growing population. In Malthus’s time the total world population was under 1 billion. On 12 October 1999 it was adjudged by the United Nations to have reached 6 billion.
A first response to the dire warnings of catastrophe is to observe that there is still more than enough food in the world to feed 6 billion people. Thirty years ago the global food output was the equivalent of 2,360 calories per person per day; today it is 2,740 calories – above the level considered necessary for healthy living.
However, up to two billion people in the world are going hungry because of the inadequate distribution of this food. Governments of some LEDCs can’t afford to buy food from the world market. Even if they could, their transport infrastructures are usually incapable of distributing it to the rural areas where it is most needed. In rural areas problems such as unequal land ownership and soil erosion are limiting the amount of food that poor farmers can grow.
Additionally the world’s population explosion is not over yet. Nine billion is the most likely prediction for total world population by 2050. More than 95% of the growth is expected to occur in LEDCs, and the bulk of the new births will take place in those countries that are the poorest, where governments are the least prepared and where problems of resource shortages are already most acute.
Although the doom-mongers may not (yet) have been proved right, population growth has nevertheless