age restricted technology
Economic Horizons, September - December 2012, Volume 14, Number 3, 169 - 179
UDC: 33 eISSN 2217-9232
© Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac www. ekfak.kg.ac.rs
Review paper
UDC: 658.8.012.2:629.33(497.11) ; 005.521:334.7 doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1203165M
APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS IN
FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE SALES OF FIAT 500 L
Predrag Mimovic*
Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
This paper describes the application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the modeling and analysis of various factors and the impact on the forecasting processes in situations when there is a need for the integration of contextual information, which is the result of sudden and unpredictable changes in the environment in which the company operates. The model is applied on a sample in forecasting the sale of a new model automobile Fiat 500 L, and is based on the professional knowledge of experts in automobile market trends, the actual current and projected trends in automobile sale and subjective evaluations of the authors, and in the context of the global economic crisis which significantly affects automobile sale in the world market.
Keywords: sale, forecasting, automotive industry, the analytical network process
JEL Classification: C51, C53, D81,E27, F47
INTRODUCTION
Considering that the global economy operates in conditions of a high risk and uncertainty, caused by the global economic crisis, the forecasting of automobile sale, especially of new models, presents a complex, multidimensional and multi-criteria problem, which also requires a methodology of an appropriate level of complexity. The research subject in this paper deals with the possibility of using the Analytic Network Process
(ANP), as a multi-criteria method for decision support
* Correspondence to: P. Mimovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Dj. Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia; e-mail: mimovicp@kg.ac.rs
in the
UDC: 33 eISSN 2217-9232
© Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac www. ekfak.kg.ac.rs
Review paper
UDC: 658.8.012.2:629.33(497.11) ; 005.521:334.7 doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1203165M
APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS IN
FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE SALES OF FIAT 500 L
Predrag Mimovic*
Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
This paper describes the application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the modeling and analysis of various factors and the impact on the forecasting processes in situations when there is a need for the integration of contextual information, which is the result of sudden and unpredictable changes in the environment in which the company operates. The model is applied on a sample in forecasting the sale of a new model automobile Fiat 500 L, and is based on the professional knowledge of experts in automobile market trends, the actual current and projected trends in automobile sale and subjective evaluations of the authors, and in the context of the global economic crisis which significantly affects automobile sale in the world market.
Keywords: sale, forecasting, automotive industry, the analytical network process
JEL Classification: C51, C53, D81,E27, F47
INTRODUCTION
Considering that the global economy operates in conditions of a high risk and uncertainty, caused by the global economic crisis, the forecasting of automobile sale, especially of new models, presents a complex, multidimensional and multi-criteria problem, which also requires a methodology of an appropriate level of complexity. The research subject in this paper deals with the possibility of using the Analytic Network Process
(ANP), as a multi-criteria method for decision support
* Correspondence to: P. Mimovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Dj. Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia; e-mail: mimovicp@kg.ac.rs
in the