Statistics: Uncertainty, Decision and Judgement

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UDJ| FINANCE|
Use/Name| Formula| Use/Name| Formula|
Variance (2)(For Poisson, equal to mean)| or n*p*(1-p)| NPV(Costs up front)| | Standard Deviation ()| | Discount Factor| _1_(1+r)n| Exp. Val E(W)of combined linear function| a + bμx + cμxWhere b&c are weights| Annuity Discount Factor| 1-DF or 1-_1_ k ( 1+r)n k| Variance (2)of combined lin funct (X,Y)| b2V(x)+c2V(y)+2bc•Cov(x,y)Where b&c are weights| AnnuityPresent Value| CF X ADF or | Covariance| x y COR(X,Y)| AnnuityFuture Value| |

Correlation (ρ)| | AnnuityPayment| |
Mean| fixi| Growing AnnuityPresent Value| |
Variance Of a Sample (s2)| sqrt to get std dev (s)| PerpetuityPresent Value| CFK| Standard Error(Then to Margin of Error & Confidence Interval)| s/√nwhere s= √x̄(1- x̄)[* (Zɑ/2) for MoE][ ↳ ± x̄ for CI]| Bond Duration| | RequiredSample Size(rework of above)| or | Variance (2)of a portfolio (X,Y)| b2E(x) 2+c2E(y) 2+2bc•Cov(x,y)Where b&c are weights| Confidence IntervalFor a proportion| | SharpeRatio| | Zobs| | Exp. Return of a portfolio| |

Test StatisticZ values Proportions Take this to the table for “P Value”| | βof a portfolio| or | X criticalproportions| Evaluation criteria:| CMLEquation| | | | Cost of Levered Equity| |

| | WACC| |
| | Levered vs. Unlevered Beta| |

μ = x̄ = E(x) Mean| n = number| CF = P = Cashflow or Payment| fi = rel. freq| = Sum of a series| T = time|
xi = middle point| ρ = Correlation| k = r = interest rate| W = combined linear func| = Standard Deviation| g = growth| 2 = Variation| ɑ = E = Margin of Error| rp = Risk of Portfolio| p0 = proportion of hypothesis| β = Beta coeffic. of portfolio| rf = Risk Free Rate|
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