Global Macro and Asian Markets Course Notes

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PRE-READINGS:
Module 1: Global Macro & Asian Markets Prof Thomas Pugel Prof Danyang Xie November 26 - 29, 2012 (Mon - Thu)

You are required to prepare all Pre-readings before class. Please bring along your pre-readings. No extra copy will be distributed in class due to copyright issue.

For Prof Thomas Pugel’s session: 1. “World Economy,” FT Special Report, Financial Times, October 12, 2012, 8 pages. The following six sections from this special report are required reading: “Hopes turn to fear and uncertainty” “Ball is in countries’ court as ECB stands prepared” “Slowdown in growth likely to continue” “‘Fiscal cliff’ looms over growth hopes” “On the hunt for yield in more robust emerging markets” “Maradona lends hand on central bank policy” 2. “The World Economy: A Game of Catch-up,” Special Report, Economist, September 24, 2011, 24 pages. All sections of this report are required reading except “Commodities: Crowded out” and “Exporting jobs: Gurgaon grief”. 3. 4. 5. “Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis,” Ben S. Bernanke, Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, August 31, 2012. “The Economic Outlook and Challenges to Monetary Policy,” John C. Williams, Presentation to the City Club of San Francisco, September 24, 2012. Chapters 17 and 18, International Economics, fifteenth edition, Thomas A. Pugel. McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2012. (Note: Other chapters of this book could be of interest but are not required pre-reading, especially Chapters 16, 19, 20, and 21.) “The European Sovereign Debt Crisis,” Philip R. Lane. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26, no. 3, Summer 2012, pp. 49-68.

6.

For Prof Dangyang Xie’s session: 1. “Rising power, anxious state”, Economist, June 25, 2011

World Economy
Inside
Growth glitches

Pages 2, 3

If Obama wins . . . or Romney

Page 4

Cash conundrum

Meeting of minds: logo for the IMF-World bank events beginning in Tokyo today

Page 5

Risks ahead if QE continues

Page 6

Pulling out stops

Page 7
Continued on Page 2

FINANCIAL TIMES

World Economy

China

Cobbled together: a euro sculpture is partially reflected in a puddle outside the European Central Bank’s Frankfurt headquarters

China’s slowest growth rate in more than a decade

Eurozone

Buy, buy: consumption is the only growth factor with the potential to strengthen

Continued from Page 1

Contributors
Chris Giles Alan Beattie Javier Blas Robin Harding Claire Jones Ben McLannahan James Mackintosh James Politi

Simon Rabinovitch Michael Steen Robin Wigglesworth

Andrew Baxter Andy Mears, Steve Bird,

Ceri Williams

FINANCIAL TIMES

World Economy

US
Global growth grinds down as spending stutters
Economic uncertainty is stopping companies and households from spending, causing growth forecasts to be revised downwards IMF forecasts for GDP growth in 2013 (%) All US Jul 2012 forecast Oct 2012 forecast

Annual % change in real GDP US China

2.4
2010

1.8
11

2.2
12

2.1
13

10.4
2010

9.2
11

7.8
12

8.2
13

Advanced economies Eurozone
Japan UK

Japan 1.2

Russia

4.5
All Central & Eastern Europe Russia Developing Asia 2010

-0.8
11

2.2
12

4.3
13 2010

4.3
11

3.7
12

3.8
13

Germany

India

Developing economies

China India

4.0
2010

3.1
11

0.9
12

0.9
13

10.1
2010

6.8
11

4.9
12

6.0
13

Latin America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

UK 0.8

Brazil 2.7 7.5
2010 11

World
0
Source: IMF

1.8
2 4 6 8 2010 11

-0.4
12

1.1
13

1.5
12

4.0
13
FT graphic

UK

Amount by which real GDP is still below the 2008 high

Bank of England: governor Sir Mervyn King says deficit reduction is not the only obstacle to growth

FINANCIAL TIMES

World Economy

US elections

Barack Obama with Chinese president Hu Jintao at a G20 summit in Mexico earlier this year. China is a prominent item on the US election agenda...
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