"Decision Theory" Essays and Research Papers

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Week Four

free will. So long as you’ve satisfied your own needs, you can become complacent, leaving problems unresolved in the long-term and everyone else to fend for themselves. Your Risk: Reducing decisions to a cost-benefit analysis If you do not assure that all have free will, you run the risk of reducing decisions to a narrow and purely financial cost-benefit analysis. You tend to cut corners as you become attached to achieving your own goals.   Your Temptation: Expedience If you are not paying attention...

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Concept of Risk

market rates. Credit Risk : the risk of profit or loss from credit rating migration and the risk of loss from counterparty default . Strategic Risk : the risk of profit or loss from making strategic decisions, executing those decisions and from the impact on the business from those decisions. Operational : the risk of loss from inadequate processes, people, systems or external events – Compliance Risk : the risk of legal or regulatory sanctions, material financial loss, or loss of reputation...

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Judgmental Heuristics

probability of the event resulting in a lower response. Activity 3 is an example on Availability Heuristic. As written by Plouse; "According to Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1974, p 1127) , the availability heuristic is a rule of thumb in which decision makers "assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an even by the ease with which instance or occurrences can be brought to mind." (Plous. p 121) Activity 4 is an example of Nonregressive prediction in that we figure that since the...

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Advanced Petroleum Economics

12 Present Value 12 Profitability Index 13 Attributes of Net Present Value 13 Perpetuity 14 Real or Nominal Cash flows 14 Variables in E&P projects 15 Decision stages in E&P project 15 Deterministic/Probabilistic 16 Expected Value Concept 16 Risk-Expected Monetary Value 16 Decision Trees 17 Limitations of decision trees: 17 Advantages of decision Tree Analysis 17 Mean or Variance 18 Discount Rate 18 Biases 19 Monte Carlo Simulation – Workflow 19 Choices under Uncertainty 20 Spider/Tornado diagramm...

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Fundamentals of Hypothesis-Testing Methodology

Fundamentals of Hypothesis-Testing Methodology Hypothesis testing typically begins with a theory, a claim, or an assertion about a particular parameter of a population. Some of them are: • The Null and Alternative Hypotheses The hypothesis that the population parameter is equal to the company specification is referred to as the null hypothesis. A null hypothesis is often one of status quo and is identified by the symbol H0. Whenever a null hypothesis is specified, an alternative hypothesis...

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Strategic Information Management

balance of description/evaluation of theory as well as practice. What does this mean exactly? As a minimum this means “name dropping” relevant theories and theorists, and having a bibliography. For example “as recommended by ABC Guru (2012) personal development should be linked to achievement of corporate objectives. With this in mind I have…… Some assignments will require more than this and will require critical evaluation of specific models, theories and techniques, and/ or how they are/can...

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Bmw - a Case Study

Arkes, H. R. and C. Blumer (1985). "The Psychology of Sunk Cost." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35 : 124-140. Basili, V. R., G. Caldiera, et al. (1992). "A Reference Architecture for the Component Factory." ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology 1 (1): 53-80. Bowen, M. G. (1987). "The Escalation Phenomenon Reconsidered: Decision Dilemmas or Decision Errors?" Academy of Management Review 12 (1): 52-66. Brockner, J. (1992). "The Escalation of Commitment...

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QNT 351

or false. One way to know if the hypothesis is valid is to determine the null hypothesis, which the opposite of the original theory, and tests against the alternative hypothesis, which correlates with the original hypothesis. To establish if the null hypothesis is valid statistical tests can help compare the means from two groups, and the results will verify if the theory is correct. These statistical tests, including the t-test and z-test are useful for determining the probability of truth to any...

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Ford Motor Company

popular ethical business practice. Sometimes this utilitarian theory is considered a controversial theory of morality especially when linked to the cost-benefit analysis versus the risk-benefit analysis, ultimately eliminating the human quality of making business decisions. Ford Motor Company, Ford Pinto Case, is one of the most debatable utilitarian cases; when discussing business ethics. In this paper I will analyze Ford Motor Company’s decision making process related to the Ford Pinto; using the utilitarian...

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Statistical Techniques for Risk Analysis

RISK ANALYSIS Statistical Techniques for Risk Analysis Statistical techniques are analytical tools for handling risky investments. These techniques, drawing from the fields of mathematics, logic, economics and psychology, enable the decision-maker to make decisions under risk or uncertainty.  The concept of probability is fundamental to the use of the risk analysis techniques. Hoe is probability defined? How are probabilities estimated? How are they used in the risk analysis techniques? How do...

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