Preview

Review of The Drunkard's Walk - How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Mlodinow

Powerful Essays
Open Document
Open Document
3431 Words
Grammar
Grammar
Plagiarism
Plagiarism
Writing
Writing
Score
Score
Review of The Drunkard's Walk - How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Mlodinow
Read the book "The Drunkard's Walk - How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Mlodinow and pay special attend to the following questions. Some of these questions may appear on quizzes and exams.

Chapter 1 Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness

1. Explain the phenomenon "regression toward the mean."
In any series of random events an extraordinary event is most likely to be followed, due purely to chance, by a more ordinary one.

2. What factors determine whether a person will be successful in career, investment, etc.?
Success in our careers, in our investments, and in our life decisions, both major and minor—is as much the result of random factors as the result of skill, preparedness, and hard work.

3. Was Paramount's firing of Lansing the correct decision? After she was fired, Paramount films market share rebounded.
No, Lansing was fired because of industry’s misunderstanding of randomness and not because of her own flawed decision making. Lansing had good luck at the beginning and bad luck at the end.

Chapter 2 The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths

1. What coined the term probability, or probabilis? (Latin: probabilis credible)
Cicero’s principal legacy in the field of randomness is the term he used, probabilis, which is the origin of the term we employ today. But it is one part of the Roman code of law, the Digest, compiled by Emperor Justinian in the sixth century, that is the first document in which probability appears as an everyday term of art

2. What is the rule for compounding probabilities? How to compute probability that one event and another event both happening?
According to the correct manner of compounding probabilities, not only do two half proofs yield less than a whole certainty, but no finite number of partial proofs will ever add up to a certainty because to compound probabilities, you don’t add them; you multiply. That brings us to our next law, the rule for compounding probabilities:
If two possible events, A

You May Also Find These Documents Helpful

  • Good Essays

    While there are always other avenues and decisions that could have been made, I find that she did the right thing. It is never easy to reduce staff and lay off employees. Especially when employees have been with the company long term or are an asset. However, her thinking of reducing jobs in areas that was not financially beneficial helped to save the company. By putting money into projects and development of newer needed products was an ideal decision as well. As the business economy continues to grow and blossom, so does the demand for updated devices used by businesses worldwide. I also agree that a manager who is often making decisions is a great manager.…

    • 615 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Powerful Essays

    Lyric Dinner Case Study

    • 2407 Words
    • 10 Pages

    1. Do you think Deborah made a good career decision to take the job of general manager at Lyric?…

    • 2407 Words
    • 10 Pages
    Powerful Essays
  • Good Essays

    Introductory Study

    • 999 Words
    • 4 Pages

    b) For models dealing with multiple lives and/or multiple states, explain the random variables associated…

    • 999 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Good Essays

    Everyone in this world is seeking for different types of success in his life. Some people want to be successful in their jobs, while others want to be successful in their relationships. Although the word “success” sounds so simple, the actual process of it is harder than most people think.…

    • 379 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Better Essays

    “Let me tell you what winning means… you’re willing to go longer, work harder, give more than anyone else.”(Lombardi). The famous NFL coach, Vince Lombardi agrees that hard work will lead people to accomplishing their goals, just like how Malcolm Gladwell points it out in his book, Outliers and Paul Tough who wrote in an article for the New York Times. Tadas Bartkus who is an engineer, researcher on jet engine icing for NASA and he has also discovered what it means to be successful, and that’s hard work. Success is as complex as the individuals that achieve it, because every person on this earth as their own mindset, dreams that they want to accomplish, and that every person has their own idea what success really is, it’s a combination of a variety of factors, including hard work,…

    • 1659 Words
    • 7 Pages
    Better Essays
  • Better Essays

    After introducing the principle causes (efficient, formal, material, final), Aristotle talks about chance and spontaneity in Book II, (Physics) for the purpose of investigating their place among the said causes. Aristotle bases his enquiry on the observation that in history, these terms are conflictive in their interpretation. Some people say that everything that we consider luck or spontaneity really has some underlying definite cause. Yet there are other people, such as Empedocles, who invoke chance when describing the physics of air; or some, who “ascribe this heavenly sphere and all the worlds to spontaneity” (196a 25). In setting out to elucidate the nature of these terms and their place among the causes, Aristotle contends that chance and spontaneity are not explanatory causes of their own, but concurrent causes. By drawing from Aristotle’s view on nature and deliberate intention, this essay sets out to develop a clear understanding of the term concurrent in relation to chance and spontaneity.…

    • 2033 Words
    • 9 Pages
    Better Essays
  • Good Essays

    When we think of success and wealth, we often think financial benefits; but no matter how we define success, we soon come to realize that there is no specific answer that will guide us down the right path to our personal success. We all have different ambitions and priorities, which mean that different accomplishments and behaviors will make us feel better about ourselves. To be successful the individual must understand what is important and must recognize one’s strengths and weaknesses. When we hear the name “Benjamin Franklin” we automatically think that he was one of the Founding Fathers of the United States; but he was much more than that. Not only was he a successful scientist, he was an inventor and a politician. But not many individuals…

    • 919 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Good Essays

    David Hume created many important philosophical works and one of the most famous is the Treatise of Human Nature. It is divided into three books, the first two of them were published in 1739 and the third book was published in 1740. Each book is concerned with different problems. The first volume discusses understanding, the second deals with passions and the third with morals. The section ‘Of Knowledge and Probability’ of the Treatise gives the necessary explaining of causation. However, the meaning of the word ‘probability’ in this case does not coincide with that in mathematics, because Hume dealt with data obtained without direct observation. Therefore, this knowledge was uncertain and was not connected with mathematics and logic.…

    • 1271 Words
    • 6 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Powerful Essays

    Mathematics: Probability

    • 3323 Words
    • 14 Pages

    The branch of mathematics known as probability theory was inspired by gambling problems. The earliest work was performed by Girolamo Cardano (1501-1576) an Italian mathematician, physician, and gambler. In his manual Liber de Ludo Aleae, Cardano discusses many of the basic concepts of probability complete with a systematic analysis of gambling problems. Unfortunately, Cardano 's work had little effect on the development…

    • 3323 Words
    • 14 Pages
    Powerful Essays
  • Powerful Essays

    The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913)[1] . Also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, which is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[2] . Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due, and it probably arises from everyday experiences with nonrandom events (such as when a scheduled train is late, where it can be expected that it has a greater chance of arriving the later it gets). This is an informal fallacy. It is also known colloquially as the law of averages. What is true instead are the law of large numbers – in the long term, averages of independent trials will tend to approach the expected value, even though individual trials are independent – and regression toward the mean, namely that following a rare extreme event (say, a run of 10 heads), the next event is likely to be less extreme (the next run of heads is likely to be less than 10), simply because extreme events are rare. The gambler's fallacy implicitly involves an assertion of negative correlation between trials of the random process and therefore involves a denial of the exchangeability of outcomes of the random process. In other words, one implicitly assigns a higher chance of occurrence to an event even though from the point of view of "nature" or the "experiment", all such events are equally probable (or distributed in a known way). The reversal is also a fallacy, in which a gambler may instead decide that tails are more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate…

    • 3171 Words
    • 13 Pages
    Powerful Essays
  • Powerful Essays

    Over the years, philosophers have tried to grapple with the concepts of belief, certainty and knowledge. Despite numerous controversial claims and arguments that come from both sides, we have yet to come upon a general consensus. However, the contention here is that belief can contribute to all areas of knowledge.…

    • 1934 Words
    • 56 Pages
    Powerful Essays
  • Good Essays

    Vkgljkh

    • 752 Words
    • 4 Pages

    At the opposite extreme from the economic rationality model is the social model drawn from psychology. Sigmund Freud viewed humans as bundles of feelings, emotions and instincts, with their behaviour guided by their unconscious desires. These processes have even an impact in the international arena as they provide some basic rules of protocol.…

    • 752 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Good Essays

    Success in all our endeavors is what we all want but, most of us forget that for reaching success, the road is not strewn with roses. The walk is not a cakewalk, nor is it a gift on a platter. Success is an achievement by constant diligence and most of us fail to achieve because most of us lack the essential quality of diligence.…

    • 323 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Good Essays

    Industrial Management

    • 3205 Words
    • 13 Pages

    The bulbs manufactured by a company gave a mean life of 3000 hours with standard…

    • 3205 Words
    • 13 Pages
    Good Essays
  • Satisfactory Essays

    Change and World

    • 407 Words
    • 2 Pages

    We live our entire lives as aspiring presidents, aspiring movie producers, aspiring artists, aspiring authors, aspiring human right activists, aspiring world renowned scientists and aspiring thought leaders. We look at those who have become what we aspire to become, and think that they were lucky. We look at the professionals, and attribute their success to luck…

    • 407 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Satisfactory Essays