Case Study 5
Suppose you now wanted to calculate duration estimates for these activities. How would you make use of the following approaches? Are some more useful than others?
a. Expert opinion –
Joe has years of administrative experience. This experience may have beneficial factors to assist in the management of this project. But because Joe has never actually managed a project before, he may need to look to fellow colleagues for assistance from time to time who have the experience. One person he could look to could be his supervisor Jill. She obviously presented him with the opportunity after seeing that he was capable. “This technique can be used in two alternative ways in assessing project risks [or in this case, building a new project, which always takes on considerable risk]. The more quantifiable method, commonly referred to as the Delphi approach, collects and consolidates the judgments of isolated anonymous respondents. For Delphi to be used effectively, some preliminary screening of potential contributors is usually necessary. The collective “ wisdom” of the set of experts is then used as the basis for decision making. The simpler, more intuitive method for using expert judgments is based on the principle that “ experience counts.” You simply identify and consult people within the organization who have had similar experiences in running projects in the past or who have been with the firm long enough to have a clear grasp of the mechanics of project risk analysis. As obvious as this may seem, this opportunity may not be clear to everyone, particularly if management shifts recently have taken place in a firm or if new employees are not aware of the firm’s project history” (Pinto 304). Expert opinion does not have to be within the company. And estimate can also be requested from a third party.
b. Past history -
Joe knows that he isn't the first one to take on a project, or the second, or third. There is lots of documentation of...
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