Name: Sakshi Vora The Goldman Sachs London Olympics Forecast Date: 16th Oct 2014 The Goldman Sachs Olympic study focuses on how countries with progressive economic environment are likely to achieve more Gold and total medals. Economies with sound political system, higher income levels and strong economic growth have significant success at Olympics since they can facilitate better training, development and infrastructure to their athletes. Apart from elementary determinants like demographics and location, the country hosting the Olympics has improved likelihood of achieving more medals than otherwise. However, some sports are an exception and are less likely to be driven by economic and host factors. Chart 1.1 is a numerical assessment of projected medals against the actual result. The host country Great Britain’s total medal tally was right on target as projected and was only short of one gold medal from the forecast. It can also be noted that the top 10 countries share more than half of the total medals tally. Overall the Gold projection was off by 32 medals and total projection was off by 45 medals than the actual. The projections were accurate for 5 countries for Gold and 3 countries for total medals tally. Chart 1.1Numerical Assessment of the Projections vs Actual
The countries that were significantly off i.e. more than 50% from the projections for gold and more than 40% for total medals(In absolute terms)from actuals: Chart 1.2: Gold Medals Chart 1.3: Total Medals
Two countries Nigeria and Austria were not successful in opening any medal account during the games. The shortcomings of the report:
Statistical techniques and macroeconomic conditions cannot always give a true picture of a country’s success at sports. Smaller economies like Kazakhstan, Iran and Hungary have outperformed economically sound countries like Canada, Spain and Australia. According to my understanding, UK was in double dip recession at the time of...
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