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demographic transition

By mazahir12345 Mar 31, 2014 613 Words

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition


• Demographic transition (DT) refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
• This is typically demonstrated through a
demographic transition model. The theory is
based on an interpretation of demographic
history developed in 1919 by the American
demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973).

Demographic Transition Model




Demographic Transition: Stage 1

Demographic Transition: Stage 1

• STAGE ONE is associated with pre Modern times,
and is characterized by a balance between birth
rates and death rates.
• This situation was true of all human populations
up until the late 18th.C. when the balance was
broken in western Europe.
• Note that, in this stage, birth and death rates are
both very high (30-50 per thousand). Their
approximate balance results in only very slow
population growth.

• Given its characteristics, Stage One is sometimes
referred to as the "High Stationary Stage" of
population growth ("high" birth and death rates;
"stationary" rates and "stationary" total
population numbers).
• Death rates were very high at all times in this
stage for a number of reasons, including:

Demographic Transition: Stage 2

Demographic Transition: Stage 2

• STAGE TWO sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly.
• The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

• A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth (a "population
explosion") as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. • Note that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths.
• Another characteristic of Stage Two of the demographic transition is a change in the age structure of the population.
• In Stage One the majority of death is concentrated in the first 5-10 years of life. Therefore, more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the increasing survival of children. Hence, the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful.

– First, improvements in food supply brought about by higher yields as agricultural practices were improved in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th.C.
– Second, there were significant improvements in public health that reduced mortality, particularly in childhood. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (which did not come until the
mid 20th.C.) as they are improvements in water supply, sewage, food handling, and general personal hygiene following on from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of disease

– Lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure;
– occasional food shortages.



Demographic Transition: Stage3
• STAGE THREE moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate.
• There are several factors contributing to this eventual decline – In rural areas continued decline in childhood death means that at some point parents realize they need not require so many children to be born to ensure a comfortable old age.

– Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children. People begin to assess more rationally just how many children they desire or need.

– Increasing female literacy and employment : as women enter the work force their life extends beyond the family . Within the family they become increasingly influential in childbearing decisions.

– Improvements in family planning method and awareness of these methods among people.

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition: Stage 4
• STAGE FOUR is characterized by stability. In
this stage the population age structure has
become older.
• In some cases the fertility rate falls well below
replacement and population decline sets in

Population Distribution by Age group


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