CARLSON sales analysis
From: Felix Agyei,
To: Carlson’s Managers
Subject: Lost Sales after the Hurricane
Date: July, 22nd 2015
Introduction
Carlson department store suffered a hurricane which resulted into a four-month shutdown (September to December 2000). The store is in dispute with the insurance company to determine the amount of compensation is entitled to. Below analysis tries to forecast the value of lost sales for that four month period. Since the store reaches its peak period during these four month, excess sales is accounted for in the proceeding analysis. Emphasis is placed on sales before and after hurricane.
ANALYSIS
Based on the 4-year data, Carlson department store exhibits: a seasonal trend with a three month increase from lowest September to peak December. As shown in appendix. During the past 3 years, Carlson sales has also exhibited a slight increase as a proportion of total county-wide sales. Total sales accrued by department stores in the county did show a decline before August 2000. Details illustrated in table below.
Table: 1
Year( Carlson Store)
Total Sales
Year (County)
Total Sales
Carlson % of County’s Sales
1997
27.1
1997
748.2
3.62%
1998
28.51
1998
710.4
4.01%
1999
31.01
1999
694.2
4.47%
Preliminary Observations
When looking at Carlson department store sales data, the last four months beginning September 1996 to September 1999 shows an increasing total sales, 10.55, 10.75, 11.05 and 11.95 respectively. It can therefore be inferred from the data that, the last four months forms 39% of annual Carlson’s department store total sales. The implication is, 61% of sales occurred in the first 8 months of each year beginning 1996 to 2000. Based on this, we can estimate total sales for year 2000 to be 32.21 had there been no hurricane.
Over the past four years, the last four months of Carlson’s department store sales formed approximately 4% of the last four months of the County’s sales. Details are showed in table 2.
Table: 2
Year
Proportion of Carlson’s last 4
To: Carlson’s Managers
Subject: Lost Sales after the Hurricane
Date: July, 22nd 2015
Introduction
Carlson department store suffered a hurricane which resulted into a four-month shutdown (September to December 2000). The store is in dispute with the insurance company to determine the amount of compensation is entitled to. Below analysis tries to forecast the value of lost sales for that four month period. Since the store reaches its peak period during these four month, excess sales is accounted for in the proceeding analysis. Emphasis is placed on sales before and after hurricane.
ANALYSIS
Based on the 4-year data, Carlson department store exhibits: a seasonal trend with a three month increase from lowest September to peak December. As shown in appendix. During the past 3 years, Carlson sales has also exhibited a slight increase as a proportion of total county-wide sales. Total sales accrued by department stores in the county did show a decline before August 2000. Details illustrated in table below.
Table: 1
Year( Carlson Store)
Total Sales
Year (County)
Total Sales
Carlson % of County’s Sales
1997
27.1
1997
748.2
3.62%
1998
28.51
1998
710.4
4.01%
1999
31.01
1999
694.2
4.47%
Preliminary Observations
When looking at Carlson department store sales data, the last four months beginning September 1996 to September 1999 shows an increasing total sales, 10.55, 10.75, 11.05 and 11.95 respectively. It can therefore be inferred from the data that, the last four months forms 39% of annual Carlson’s department store total sales. The implication is, 61% of sales occurred in the first 8 months of each year beginning 1996 to 2000. Based on this, we can estimate total sales for year 2000 to be 32.21 had there been no hurricane.
Over the past four years, the last four months of Carlson’s department store sales formed approximately 4% of the last four months of the County’s sales. Details are showed in table 2.
Table: 2
Year
Proportion of Carlson’s last 4