An Econometric Model of Chinese
AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF CHINESE
This case study gives an overview of the trend and characteristics of Chinese graduates going to study abroad by using an econometric model. The study covers the period between 1978 and 2012. The results show a positive relationship between the number of Chinese graduates abroad and the number of Graduate student enrollment, China's registered urban unemployment rate exchange rate and average disposable income of urban households, while a negative relation with the number of Graduate student enrollment.
Keywords: Chinese graduates abroad, domestic and foreign factors, trend
As a result of China's growing participation and importance in the process of internationalization and globalization, a continuously rising number of Chinese students have gone abroad for further study. By the end of the last decade the number of Chinese students abroad made up the largest group of international students in the USA (surpassing those from India) and during the next decade this group will become the world's largest floating student population. And among all the chinese students go abroad, 80%-90% of them are graduates who want to enroll in the postgraduate programs to get a master degree provided by foreign universities mainly in U.S, UK and several European countries. So in this study, we mainly focus on the graduates who got bachelor degree in China and have went abroad for further study .Table1 shows the trend of these students abroad from 1978 to 2012. As we all know, China restored the university entrance examination in 1978 and we can see the numbers of graduates going abroad in that year was 860 and 34 years passed the number was about 40 times greater than the initial one. And the growth rate gradually keeps increasing at a high speed. Since many of the students around are planning to study abroad, we think it’s quite useful to learn about the factors that influence the trend. As far as we concerned, such a rapid growth trend of Chinese graduates abroad is linked mainly to two parts of reasons: domestic and overseas reasons.
Table1: Numbers of Chinese graduates going abroad from 1978 to 2012
Confronted with the flourishing tendency, our group turns to analyze what factors push the phenomenon. We divide the possible contributors into 2 parts: domestic and foreign ones. (1) Escape Domestic Pressures
When the students finish their university study, where is their nest stop? To find a job directly? Or to get a master degree within the country? But neither way is easy to go. More and more college graduates have formed an ultra-competitive graduate job market in China. Millions of graduates have yet to find work. These are the pressures that the average student faces. It is hard to get ahead when all the graduates are very good. Those who want to enter the postgraduate schools in China always find that the good post-graduate schools in China always have limited planned enrollment figure. So it’s not so easy to get admitted to the ideal schools for graduates in China. The lack of university places and fierce competition at home are partial reasons that students wave goodbye to their parents. Besides, China’s growing middle class also has aspirations to send their children abroad for an education. More and more families have the financial ability to support their kids to study abroad which means they can afford foreign universities. (2) Potential Foreign Elements
Most of the graduates planning to go abroad for further study choose to apply for a job overseas to gain more experience or to obtain a green card. When the foreign countries suffered from an economy recession, the unemployment rate went upward. So we can see from 2008 to 2010, the growth rate of the numbers of graduates abroad is decreased. And since the global economy recovered from the recession, the growth rate went...
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