Outsmart You Own Bias
HBR.ORG
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
MAY 2015
REPRINT R1505D
Outsmart Your
Own Biases
by Jack B. Soll, Katherine L. Milkman, and
John W. Payne
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
SPOTLIGHT
ARTWORK Millo, 2014
B.ART–Arte in Barriera
Turin, Italy
FOR ARTICLE REPRINTS CALL 800-988-0886 OR 617-783-7500, OR VISIT HBR.ORG
Outsmart Your Own Biases
by Jack B. Soll, Katherine L.
Milkman, and John W. Payne
S
SUPPOSE YOU’RE EVALUATING a job candidate to lead a new office in a different country. On paper this is by far the most qualified person you’ve seen. Her responses to your interview questions are flawless. She has impeccable social skills. Still, something doesn’t feel right. You can’t put your finger on what—you just have a sense. How do you decide whether to hire her?
You might trust your intuition, which has guided you well in the past, and send her on her way. That’s what most executives say they’d do when we pose this scenario in our classes on managerial decision making. The problem is, unless you occasionally go against your gut, you haven’t put your intuition to the test. You can’t really know it’s helping you make good choices if you’ve never seen what happens when you ignore it.
May 2015 Harvard Business Review 3
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
isn’t enough, as Kahneman, reflecting on his own experiences, has pointed out. So we also provide strategies for overcoming biases, gleaned from the latest research on the psychology of judgment and decision making.
First, though, let’s return to that candidate you’re considering. Perhaps your misgivings aren’t really about her but about bigger issues you haven’t yet articulated. What if the business environment in the new region isn’t as promising as forecast? What if employees have problems collaborating across borders or coordinating with the main office? Answers to such questions will shape decisions to scale back or manage continued growth, depending on how the future unfolds. So you should think through
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
MAY 2015
REPRINT R1505D
Outsmart Your
Own Biases
by Jack B. Soll, Katherine L. Milkman, and
John W. Payne
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
SPOTLIGHT
ARTWORK Millo, 2014
B.ART–Arte in Barriera
Turin, Italy
FOR ARTICLE REPRINTS CALL 800-988-0886 OR 617-783-7500, OR VISIT HBR.ORG
Outsmart Your Own Biases
by Jack B. Soll, Katherine L.
Milkman, and John W. Payne
S
SUPPOSE YOU’RE EVALUATING a job candidate to lead a new office in a different country. On paper this is by far the most qualified person you’ve seen. Her responses to your interview questions are flawless. She has impeccable social skills. Still, something doesn’t feel right. You can’t put your finger on what—you just have a sense. How do you decide whether to hire her?
You might trust your intuition, which has guided you well in the past, and send her on her way. That’s what most executives say they’d do when we pose this scenario in our classes on managerial decision making. The problem is, unless you occasionally go against your gut, you haven’t put your intuition to the test. You can’t really know it’s helping you make good choices if you’ve never seen what happens when you ignore it.
May 2015 Harvard Business Review 3
SPOTLIGHT ON DECISION MAKING
isn’t enough, as Kahneman, reflecting on his own experiences, has pointed out. So we also provide strategies for overcoming biases, gleaned from the latest research on the psychology of judgment and decision making.
First, though, let’s return to that candidate you’re considering. Perhaps your misgivings aren’t really about her but about bigger issues you haven’t yet articulated. What if the business environment in the new region isn’t as promising as forecast? What if employees have problems collaborating across borders or coordinating with the main office? Answers to such questions will shape decisions to scale back or manage continued growth, depending on how the future unfolds. So you should think through