# MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM

Topics: Normal distribution, Random variable, Probability density function Pages: 5 (1304 words) Published: September 22, 2014

MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

6. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

8. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

9. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

10. __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

11. The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

12. Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

13. Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

14. Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

15. Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20. No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability 0 .10 .10

1 .25 .35
2 .36 .71
3 .22 .93
4 .07 1.00
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
16. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:   Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80. What is the expected yield of the crop?

17. __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

18. Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

19. Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

20. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

21. __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

22. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

23. __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

24. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

25. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.   xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

26. A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard...