Summary of Prevail and Transcend Scenario in Radical Evolution
Summary of Prevail and Transcend Scenario In chapter six of Radical Evolution, author Joel Garreau shows through various interviews and examples that even though technology may be rising on an exponentially increasing Curve, humans may still be able to change the effects of technological advance in unpredictable ways. Deemed the Prevail scenario, it is also characterized by humans slowing down once-viewed inevitable change viewed as negative and speeding up positive change. Another great theme of the Prevail Scenario is its idea that technological advance will enable humans to acquire a better understanding of their society and nature. In addition to discussing the Prevail scenario, Garreau also discusses the possible change humans themselves may experience in chapter seven. He shows this possibility through a series of interviews and historic examples. The first person whom Garreau interviewed was Jaron Lanier, a computer scientist who coined the term “virtual reality”. Garreau notes how Lanier “does not see The Curve yielding some inevitable, preordained result, as in the fashion of the Heaven and Hell Scenarios” (195).
This would suggest that even though Lanier believes that technology advances on an exponential Curve, he differs from past technology futurists, such as Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy, in that Lanier believes the effects of technology are unpredictable and wild. Lanier believes that humans have the power to gain more understanding about human nature through advancing technology. Garreau describes Lanier’s predictions of the future: “…it would not be represented by smooth curves, either up or down, as in the first two scenarios. It would doubtless have fits and starts, hiccups and coughs, reverses and loops – not unlike the history we humans have always known” (196). Despite the chaotic nature of Lanier’s Prevail Scenario, the future of humans and technology would ultimately involve the humans being in control. In addition to interviewing
This would suggest that even though Lanier believes that technology advances on an exponential Curve, he differs from past technology futurists, such as Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy, in that Lanier believes the effects of technology are unpredictable and wild. Lanier believes that humans have the power to gain more understanding about human nature through advancing technology. Garreau describes Lanier’s predictions of the future: “…it would not be represented by smooth curves, either up or down, as in the first two scenarios. It would doubtless have fits and starts, hiccups and coughs, reverses and loops – not unlike the history we humans have always known” (196). Despite the chaotic nature of Lanier’s Prevail Scenario, the future of humans and technology would ultimately involve the humans being in control. In addition to interviewing
Cited: Garreau, Joel. Radical Evolution. New York: Broadway Books, 2005. Print.