output‚ t = -.412 and p = .689. A stationary model seems appropriate since the linear term‚ Period‚ is not significant. 7.1 c. Forecast for January -- 19‚ for upcoming year – 12*19 = 228 7.1 d. Forecast for January -- 20.4 e. 4 month moving average. MAD is 1.72 7.2 See files Ch7.2a.xls and Ch7.2b.xls a. Forecast for January -- 18.86 7.2 b. See file Ch7.2b.xls Forecast for January -- 20.28 c. = .6 gives the lower MSE 7.3 See file Ch7.3.xls a. b. Coefficients
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data on almost every person who walks through the doors. With POS systems‚ you can analyze sales data‚ maintain a sales history to help adjust your buying decisions‚ and you can improve your pricing accuracy. Also‚ Hard Rock uses a 3-year weighted moving average (applied to café sales) to help evaluate managers and to set their bonuses. The biggest indicator of the performance is the sales at the store they supervise. Lastly‚ Hard Rock uses multiple regression to help figure out how to set up the
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Chapter 4_class exercise True/False 1. The forecasting time horizon and the forecasting techniques used tend to vary over the life cycle of a product. Answer: TRUE 2. A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast. Answer: TRUE 3. Cycles and random variations are both components of time series. Answer: TRUE 4. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved. Answer: TRUE 5. If a forecast is consistently greater
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Pharos University Faculty of Financial & Administrative Sciences O PERATIONS M ANAGEMENT B y: Dr. Ola E lgeuoshy S pring 2013 C hapter (3) F orecasting F ORECASTING “ a Statement about the future value of a variable of i nterest .” U ses of Forecasting: Accounting Cost/profit estimates Finance Cash flow and funding Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training Marketing Pricing‚ promotion‚ strategy MIS IT/IS systems‚ services Operations Schedules‚ MRP
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OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT 1. Supplier Us Customer Raw materials Transforming Work in progress inventory Transformation Finished goods inventory Customer Codex 25000D1‚ 18 dollars (Notes and Problems). Assignment 1‚ 2 make for 15%. Midterm make for 35% and the Assignment 3 for 10%. Finals make up for 40%. Assignments handed in at the beginning of sessions 5‚ 7 and 12. Value added: Inputs Transformation process Outputs. How do we increase value to the product. A lot of things
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thousands of dollars) for the years 2009 through 2012 havebeen $48‚000‚ $64‚000‚$67‚00 and $83‚000‚ respectively a) What sales would you predict for 2013‚ using a simple four-year moving average? F2013 = = $65‚500 $65‚000 is the forecast for 2013 b) What sales would you predict for 2013‚ using a weighted moving average with weights of0.50 for the immediate preceding year and 0.3‚ 0.15‚ and 0.05 for the three years before that? F2013 = 0.50A2012 + 0.3A2011 + 0.15A2010 + 0.05A2009
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ActualForecastErrorError1011-11810-22108 2266 0098 11 FCT 3 What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights .5‚ .3‚ .2 (largest weight is for most recent data) Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.April373640424743 FCT 4 Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local Whole Foods Market are in the table below. Based on this data‚ forecast week 9 using a three-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 380 8 410 FCT 4 Most
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Forecasting Forecast can help managers by reducing some of the uncertainty‚ thereby enabling them to develop more meaningful plans than they might otherwise. A forecast is a statement about the future. Features common to all forecasts 1. The same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future. 2. Forecasts are rarely perfect; actual results usually differ from predicted values. 3. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts
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Chapter 1 Introduction to Operations Management True/False 1. Operations managers are responsible for assessing consumer wants and needs and selling and promoting the organization’s goods or services. Answer: False Page: 4 Difficulty: Easy 2. Often‚ the collective success or failure of companies’ operations functions will impact the ability of a nation to compete with other nations. Answer: True Page: 4 Difficulty: Easy 3. Companies are either producing
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BankUSA Help Desk - Case Study Brent Schmitz Business 4208 Notre Dame de Namur July 28‚ 2013 Abstract The purpose of this case study is to recommend how to increase the overall effectiveness and improve the planning of the Help Desk business unit for BankUSA. This study will look at what are the service management characteristics of the customer service representative‚ create a suggested mission statement for the Help Desk and review which forecasting technique is best used by the
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