rraNBP CONFERENCE „POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND BARRIERS TO GROWTH” ZALESIE GÓRNE 2003 Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena 1 NBP CONFERENCE „POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND BARRIERS TO GROWTH” ZALESIE GÓRNE 2003 © 20030 International Monetary Fund WP/00/59 IMF Working Paper European I Department Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden
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Desautels Faculty of Management Advanced Business Statistics MGSC-372 Fall 2013 Secretary: Gina Ceolin Office: 484 Telephone: 398-4000 Ext. 09662 Office Hours: 9:00 am – 12 noon‚ 1:30 – 5:00 pm E-mail: gina.ceolin@mcgill.ca Teaching Assistant: Manaf Zargoush E-mail: zargoush@gmail.com Office Hours to be announced Course Materials Business Statistics: A Second Course. Second Custom Edition for McGill University‚ Pearson Custom Publishing‚ 2010. A copy of the student edition
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Methods of Estimation of flood discharge 4.1 Introduction After estimating the change in rainfall‚ as described in chapter 3‚ the next step is to convert that rainfall change into a flood flow (an amount of water flowing in a river). This chapter looks at both screening and advanced tools that can be used to help river managers estimate changes in flood flows. Historical data and ongoing data campaigns are vital components of any forecasts of flood flows. Although climate change means that future
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A study into the use of micro-CT to ascertain the age at death of an individual. Introduction Age Estimation Often upon the discovery of skeletal remains‚ one of the most important steps in producing a biological profile of the deceased is to estimate a probable age-at-death range‚ the sex‚ ethnicity and stature of the individual (Franklin 2010). There are many different methods of doing this‚ depending on whether the skeleton is juvenile or adult. When aging a juvenile skeleton‚ there are many
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trick is to determine which are true patterns that can be used for analysis and which are merely random variations. The patterns you look for include: Trends – long term movements in either direction Cycles - wavelike variations lasting more than a year usually tied to economic or political conditions (eg gas prices have long term impact on travel trends) Seasonality – short-term variations related to season‚ month‚ particular day (eg Christmas sales‚ Monday trade etc) In addition there are causes of
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CIVIL ENGINEERING ESTIMATES An estimate is a calculation of the quantities of various items of work‚ and the expenses likely to be incurred there on. The total of these probable expenses to be incurred on the work is known as estimated cost of the work. The estimated cost of a work is a close approximation of its actual cost. The agreement of the estimated cost with the actual cost will depend on accurate use of estimating methods and correct visualization of the work‚ as it will be done. Importance
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Chapter 8: Cost Estimation Strategic Role of Cost Estimation * Cost Estimationthe development of a well-defined relationship b/t a cost object and its cost drivers for the purpose of predicting the cost * Facilitates strategic mgmt is 2 ways * Helps predict future costs * Helps identify key cost drivers for a cost object and which driver is most useful * Using Cost Estimation to Predict future costs * Strategic mgmt requires accurate estimates for the
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data points taken over time may have an internal structure such as autocorrelation‚ trend or seasonal variation that should be accounted for. A Time-series model explains a variable with regard to its own past and a random disturbance term. Special attention is paid to exploring the historic trends and patterns (such as seasonality) of the time series involved‚ and to predict the future of this series based on the trends and patterns identified in the model. Since time series models only require historical
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direct and reverse regressions of unemployment on output. In 1962‚ Arthur Okun found a clever solution to the difficult problem of estimating an economyÕs potential output. Instead of simply measuring the trend of GNP over time and calculating the GNP gap as the deviation of actual GNP from trend‚ Okun exploited the dependable relationship between the rate of growth of output and the unemployment rate (now commonly known as OkunÕs Law) in order to estimate potential output given actual unemployment
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is increasing. Market Trends A market trend is the general direction of the market they are in. When the trading market responds to the ups and downs of prices associated with investments and securities. A business cycle is a sequence of economic activity‚ characterised by boom‚ recession‚ recovery and trough. Boom being the highest point in a business and recession being the lowest. Disney The market trend for the services of Disney is increasing. This is the trend for the Revenue of Disney
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