50% probability‚ respectively. Question: will we prefer the actuarial value of the gamble (i.e. its expected outcome = 50%(16+4)=$10) with certainty or the gamble it self ? 1. The person who prefers the gamble is a risk lover 2. The person who is indifferent is risk neutral 3. The person who prefers the expected value with certainty is risk averse 4 3-C-Establishing a definition of risk aversion Example : Flipping a (fair) coin (i.e. probability = 50% for each side)
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If trust does not meet test of certainty it will fail/be void If trust to be valid must meet three certainties: (Knight v Knight) Certainty of intention Certainty of subject matter Certainty of objects/beneficiaries Fundamental principle: the trust must be capable of being controlled + enforced There must be “sufficient practical certainty in [the trust’s] definition for it to be carried out‚ if necessary with the administrative assistance of the court‚ according to the expressed intention
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state of mind than certainty’ Discuss. In the play 12 Angry Men‚ Reginald Rose uses comparisons between the characters to show that doubt can be an easier stance‚ then to be certain. At the beginning Rose uses the alienation of juror 8 to depict certainty to be an easier state of mind but as the story progresses the readers are shown negative changes in attitude for the jurors that are certain therefore showing doubt is an easier state of mind in the long run. Juror 3’s certainty is quickly dismissed
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Decision Making Under Certainty‚ Uncertainty & Risk Principles of management UPG SYBMS- B Introduction • Decision making is the major responsibility of a manager‚ regardless of his or her functional area or level in the organization • In any disaster-related program‚ the goal should be to provide a framework for decision makers to effectively analyze a complex situation containing numerous alternatives and possible consequences and to arrive at the best possible choice with a minimum of delay
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Understood Complexity: Ibsen’s ‘An Enemy of the People’ E:CO Issue Vol. 11 No. 3 2009 pp. 1-15 Academic Understood Complexity: Ibsen’s ‘An Enemy of the People’—On Complexity‚ Sense-Making‚ Understanding‚ and Exit/Voice/Loyalty Tom Eide Diakonhjemmet University College‚ NOR ‘Understood complexity’ is a term of Albert Hirschman (1976) whose economicpolitical theory of ‘exit’ (‘vote with your feet’) versus ‘voice’ (feedback or use your influence for change) (1970)‚ has often been
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person needs a sense of assurance in which to make a decision. One’s failure to take a position due to a lack of security does not necessarily constitute a disadvantage. On the contrary‚ even though one’s certainty in a situation may build confidence‚ the benefits of doubt outweigh those of certainty‚ for not only does doubt provide hope and allow one to have conversations with others without the presence of biased thoughts‚ it also leads to the much progressed legal system that exists today. The
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Period 7 Question 3 Being certain about something can sometimes be misleading or misunderstood. You either assure certainty or question doubt. You can easily be a cocky football player‚ think you have the best team‚ and go into the game knowing you’re going to win and have no doubt that the other team is better than you‚ but end up losing. But as soon as you have doubt and get intimidated by the other team you instantly try your best to win the game‚ no matter the obstacles and challenges
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greater extent‚ certainty. This desire to understand has given way to a multitude of discoveries and convictions throughout the course of human history. Although‚ William Lyon Phelps and Bertrand Russell had differing views on the nature of doubt and certainty it is only through the original state of doubt that one could gain the status of certainty- or at least to some degree. What qualifies as certainty itself is unstable‚ since every person comes to the conclusion of certainty in a
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How does the impossibility of certainty affect Shakespeare’s play Hamlet? What differentiates Hamlet from other plays from Shakespeare is that the action we expect to see‚ and particularly Hamlet’s action‚ is continually postponed while Hamlet tries to understand the truth about his father’s death and about what he should do. This play poses a certain number of questions that other plays would have taken for granted. For example‚ Hamlet does not know whether the ghost he has seen truly is the ghost
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“Mathematicians have the concept of rigorous proof‚ which leads to knowing something with complete certainty. Consider the extent to which complete certainty might be achievable in mathematics and the natural sciences.” To what extent can man use mathematics and the natural sciences to embrace the concept of achieving absolute certainty? It is not possible for humans to achieve absolute certainty in knowledge using mathematics and the natural sciences. This is because mathematics is a creation
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