SCM 485 Exam 1 Review Forecast Notes Supply Chain Management Sequence of activities and organizations involved in producing and delivering a good or service SCM Define by Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Supply Chain Management encompasses the planning and management of all activity involved in sourcing and procurement‚ conversion‚ and all logistics management activities. Importantly‚ it also includes coordination and collaboration with channel partners‚ which can
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A: uniform distribution Random numbers generated by a _ process instead of a _process are psudorandom numbers. A: mathematical/physical 200 imulations runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below . the average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of .20. A: .71 Which of the following possible values
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.......................... 7 4 STATIONARY TIME SERIES.......................................................................................................... 8 4.1 MOVING AVERAGE:............................................................................................................................. 8 4.2 WEIGHTED AVERAGE: ......................................................................................................................... 9 4.3 EXP. SMOOTHING: .....................
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method 1.moving averages 1.regression analysis 2.Opinion poll 2.exponential smoothing 2.multiple regression 3.Historical Analogy 3.econometric models 4.Field Surveys 5.Business barometers 6.Extrapolation Technique 7.Input-Out put Analysis 8.Lead Lag Analysis 9.Sales force composites 10.Consumer Market survey Simple Average Method The historical data is used for extrapolating and forecasting. Either simple averages or moving averages could be
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Z-10 mountain bike‚ with monthly sales as show in the table. First‚ co-owner Amit wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting February’s forecast equal to January’s sales with α=1. Co-owner Barbara wants to use a three-period moving average. 1. Is there a strong lineal trend in sales over time? 2. Fill in the table with what Amit and Barbara each forecast for May and the earlier months‚ as relevant. 3. Assume that May’s actual sales figure turns out to be 405. Complete
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Case study: Forecasting at Hard Rock Café 1. Hard Rock uses a 3- year weighted moving average to evaluate to evaluate managers and set bonuses and determine the café sales. A moving average is also used in which they applied 20% to sales 2 years ago. Using multiple regression‚ managers can compute the impact on demand of other menu items if the price of one item is changed. The three other areas which we think Hard Rock could use forecasting models are: • Computerized Scheduling
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influence (Multiplicative Model) 2 Smoothing Methods Smoothing methods are used to average out the irregular components of the time series in cases where the time series: is fairly stable‚ and has no significant trend‚ seasonal‚ or cyclical effects. • • Four common smoothing methods: 1) 2) 3) 4) Moving Average Weighted Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Centered Moving Average (not for forecasting as we will see later – only a process to lead to forecasting) Measures
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Actual Month Demand 1 62 2 65 3 68 4 70 5 72 6 74 a. Calculate the simple 3-month moving average forecast for periods 4-6. (5 points) b. Calculate the weighted 3-month moving average using weights of 0.50‚ 0.30‚ and 0.20 for periods 4-6. (5 points) c. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-6 using an initial forecast (F1) 62‚ and an of 0.30. (10 points) d.
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Study Guide for the Second Exam Aggregate Production Planning (APP) 1. What are the major inputs‚ constraints‚ and outputs of the aggregate production plan (APP)? 2. Does APP have to be in terms of a real product? 3. Where does APP fit in the hierarchy of plans? 4. What is a pure strategy? What is a mixed strategy? Give examples? How do we determine (judge) whether one plan is better than the other? 5. What is relevant (incremental) cost? Does it exist in accounting
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Chapter 4: Multiple Choice Questions 1. Forecasts a. become more accurate with longer time horizons b. are rarely perfect c. are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items d. all of the above e. none of the above One purpose of short-range forecasts is to determine a. production planning b. inventory budgets c. research and development plans d. facility location e. job assignments Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into three categories a. short-range‚ medium-range
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