Decision Tree Analysis Choosing Between Options by Projecting Likely Outcomes Decision Trees are useful tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can explore options‚ and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action. This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different
Premium Decision theory Decision tree Risk
are many decisions which have to be made. One such decision opportunity arose about one week ago. The question was what to do with a major cable which is in the way of a guard rail that the Department of Transportation is installing. In this paper‚ the decision on what to do with this cable will be solved using a decision tree. The discussion will include the major factors involved in making the decision and also show how the final decision was made. Decision tree The decision tree is an effective
Premium Decision tree Tree Cost accounting
Decision Trees for Decision Making The management of a company that I shall call Stygian Chemical Industries‚ Ltd.‚ must decide whether to build a small plant or a large one to manufacture a new product with an expected market life of ten years. The decision hinges on what size the market for the product will be. Possibly demand will be high during the initial two years but‚ if many initial users find the product unsatisfactory‚ will fall to a low level thereafter. Or high initial demand might
Premium Cash flow Decision making Net present value
I 1.1 Chapter Outline A Decision Tree Model and Its Analysis • The following concepts are introduced through the use of a simple decision tree example (the Bill Sampras ’ summer job decision): Decision tree Decision node Event node Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set of events Branches and final values Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Optimal decision strategy • Introduction of the folding back or backward induction procedure for solving a decision tree. • Discussion on sensitivity
Premium Decision tree Decision theory
Decision Tree Portfolio 1 Decision Tree Portfolio Psy 410 Kathleen McCabe University of Phoenix January 21‚ 2012 Lara Ashbaugh Decision Tree Portfolio 2 The Portfolio for my Decision Tree is concerning a residential fire. The first place that would be called is 911. The dispatchers in our area immediately contact the local and closest fire station(s) to respond. The following takes place after 911 has been called. The 911 dispatchers contact the police and fire departments
Premium Medicine Decision tree Risk
Decision tree analysis Decision tree analysis known as an analytical tool applied to decision-making under condition of uncertainty‚ also clarifying where there are many possible outcomes for various alternatives and some outcomes are dependent on previous outcomes. However‚ decision tree will present as a diagram by showing the relationship among possible courses of action‚ possible events and the potential outcomes for each course of action in the decision (Drury‚ 2012). So decision tree analysis
Premium Decision theory Decision tree Random variable
1. How has Merck been able to achieve substantial returns to capital given the large costs and lengthy time to develop drugs? Merck had a 14% increase in sales between 1997 and 1998 and 22% increase in sales from 1998 – 1999‚ and a 13% annual increase in earnings over the same period. Merck’s business strategy consists of two parts: (1) developing and marketing new drugs through internal research‚ and (2) developing partnerships with smaller biotechnology companies. Since 1995‚ Merck had launched
Premium Expected value License Money
Merck is a global research-driven pharmaceutical company dedicated to putting patients first. Merck’s highest priority areas are Alzheimer’s disease‚ atherosclerosis‚ cardiovascular disease‚ diabetes‚ novel vaccines‚ obesity‚ oncology‚ pain and sleep disorders. In addition‚ and importantly for licensing‚ the following other areas remain of high interest for focused investment in new compounds and mechanisms: antibiotics‚ antifungals‚ antivirals (HCV and HIV)‚ asthma‚ COPD‚ neurodegeneration‚ ophthalmology
Premium RNA Protein Immune system
Questions for the Merck Case Create a decision tree for Merck. The 2 leftmost branches would identify the alternatives related to licensing Davarink (specifically license versus not to license). Next‚ if Merck decides to pursue license‚ they go into phase I which results in a success‚ or failure. Phase I success is followed by phase II where Merck has the opportunity to develop the drug to treat depression alone‚ weight loss alone‚ or both‚ or contemplate phase II failure. Finally phase
Premium Decision tree Decision theory
BUAD820 – Case 2 Merck Case Decision Tree and Analysis Presented By – Sridevi Chennuri Nuray Coban Subhashini Reddy Merck & Company :Evaluating a Drug Licensing Opportunity • Background - Merck & Company : •In 2000‚ it was a global research-driven pharmaceutical company that discovers‚ develop‚ manufactures and markets a broad range of human and animal health products‚ directly and through its joint ventures‚ and provides pharmaceutical benefit management services through Merck-Medco Managed Care
Premium Clinical trial Decision tree Expected value