data analysis. Use your knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the likelihood of appeal and reversal for cases handled by different courts. Managerial Report Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also‚ include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum‚ your report should incluse the following: a. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in
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ticket‚ d2 0 0 Payoff Table a.) A realistic estimate of the chances of winning is 1 in 250‚000. approach to recommend a decision. Use the expected value Answer: Given: Realistic estimate of the probability of winning: 0.000004 (1/250‚000) Realistic estimate of the probability of losing : 0.999996 (1- 0.000004) Thus‚ the expected values for the two decision alternatives are: EV(d1) = 0.000004(300‚000) + 0.999996(-2) = 1.2 + (-1.999992) = -0.799992 EV(d2) = 0.000004(0) + 0.999996(0)
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a prior probability? Prior probability is the probability that is initially calculated based on the information or data that is available in that moment. 2. Explain the purpose behind using Bayes Theorem The purpose of the Bayes’ theorem is to revise previously calculated probabilities based on new information. 19.36 Again consider the oil company case that was described in Example 19.1. Recall that the oil company wishes to decide whether to drill and that the prior probabilities of no oil
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from this population‚ the probability that exactly 2 students have experienced math anxiety is (a) 0.3020 (b) 0.2634 (c) 0.20 13 (d) 0.5 (4 1 (f) None of the above 2. Refer to the previous problem. The standard deviation of the number of students in the sample who have experienced math anxiety is (a) 0.0160 (b) 1.265 (c) 0.2530 (d) 1 (e) .2070 3. In a certain large population‚ 40% of households have a total annual income of $70‚000. A
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82 Nonviolent 12 34 22 68 Total 39 75 36 150 a. What is the probability of selecting a case to analyze and finding it involved a violent crime? = 82/150 b. What is the probability of selecting a case to analyze and finding the crime was committed by someone less than 40 years old? = 115/150 c. What is the probability of selecting a case that involved a violent crime or an offender less than 20 years old? Which rule
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have seen dozens of examples of PERT charts‚ and tools for drawing PERT charts. They always make me cringe. Invariably these charts a tools missed the nd fundamental principle of PERT that made it such a successful technique: the management of probabilities. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) was developed in 1958 to help measure and control the progress of the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program. The technique earned considerable respect for assisting in the management of thousands
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6.1 Given a standardized normal distribution (with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1‚ as in Table E.2)‚ what is the probability that a. Z is less than 1.57? b. Z is greater than 1.84? c. Z is between 1.57 and 1.84? d. Z is less than 1.57 or greater than 1.84? 6.5 Given a normal distribution m = 100 and s = 10 what is the probability that a. X > 75? b. X < 70? c. X < 80 or X > 100? d. Between what two X values (symmetrically distributed around the mean)
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1. Torpedo question: 2 torpedoes‚ each with 1/3 probability of hitting/ sinking a ship 2. I have 20% chance to have cavity gene. If I do have the gene‚ there is 51% chance that I will have at least one cavity over 1 year. If I don’t have the gene‚ there is 19% chance that I will have at least one cavity over 1 year. Given that I have a cavity in 6 months‚ what’s the probability that I have at least a cavity over 1 year? 3. What is the probability of 5 people with different ages siting in ascending
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Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. . Answer True False 2 points =F Question 5 . P(A | B) is the probability of event A‚ if we already know that event B has occurred. . Answer True False 2 points =T Question 6 . A binomial probability distribution indicates the probability of r successes in n trials. . Answer True False 2 points =T Question 7 . A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within
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Week 1 quiz Week 1‚ Quiz 1 Points Received 40/40 (100%) 1. Total cost equal the fixed cost plus the variable cost per unit divided by volume • True • False 2. Objective probabilities that can be stated prior to the occurrence of an event are • Subjective • A priori • Classical or a priori • None of the above 3. An experiment is an activity that results in one of several possible outcomes. • True
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