I. Decision Trees Bee’s Nest Inter Prize is a company that manufactures adhesives that are used in tapes and glues. Currently‚ they are thinking of a business proposition of opening another branch in the province in order to increase their market and gain more sales. Currently‚ their revenue is backed up with a good market demand giving them approximately P10‚000 income with high demand and they will incur a loss of P500 on times when demand is low due to the fixed costs of the company. Probability
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how modeling is used in decision analysis. What is meant by the term "requisite decision model"? Ans: Modeling is used in decision analysis in several ways. Models facilitate gaining insights of a decision problem that may not be apparent or obvious on the surface. For example‚ influence diagrams and decision trees are used to represent the decision problem. Hierarchical and network models are used to understand the relationships among different aspects or objectives. Utility functions are used to
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LORENZO C. VILLAFLORES HOW HARDWIRED IS HUMAN BEHAVIOR? Individual human behavior even before the old generation until today is genetically predisposed or influenced by environmental factors such as personal experiences and culture. Hereditary traits causes some people to behave and respond differently from one another. Say a person who has high temperamental makes him react furiously to situations that would somehow put him or her to danger or uncomfortable zone. This trait of being high tempered
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Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masood’s section HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao Decision Basis Information Probability of rain‚ mold formation‚ acidity‚ sugar level‚ wine price‚ reputation value‚ detector accuracy‚ spores effectiveness‚ immigration law Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives Harvest now or later Use detector or not Buy spores or not Sell in bottle or bulk Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences Prefers more money than less
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Case 25 Harimann International MANA 6302 03 David Thomas Breaux Dallas Baptist University Executive Summary Vikram Dhawan is the president of Harimann International that he established in May of 1990. Vikram established the business in an effort to fund his impending Masters in Business Administration in the United States. The business is located in Delhi‚ India where tax incentives are offered for business who export goods and materials to targeted countries including Japan‚ Canada‚ and
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that temperatures above 60° are ignored from this analysis because cool temperatures are forecast for race day; consequently‚ an analysis of high temperatures is irrelevant. Using the information calculated above (R2 = 0.6447)‚ one can build a decision tree to determine algebraically the optimal course of action. Carter Racing faces a 65% chance of not completing a race in cool temperatures; and by extension it only has a 35% chance of finishing a race under such conditions. However‚ the payoff associated
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Criteria 1 - Armin’ situation & Armin’s team How does Armin perceive his situation in the company as a result of the alternative chosen? More concretely‚ are his reputation and ability to generate new business going to be affected by the decision he makes? Will his team keep an equally proactive spirit? Criteria 2 - Relationship with the direct boss and other Bosses (CMB) How will the relationship with Hartmut Schur (Armin’s direct boss) be affected by each alternative? What is the impact
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2 Specific Tools Problem tree analysis is a key to many kinds of project planning. Problem tree analysis helps to find solutions by mapping out the anatomy of cause and effect around an issue but with more structure. The problem can be broken down into manageable pieces which allow clearer views on priorities and stronger focuses on objectives in planning. It is often the first step in win-win solutions. Problem tree analysis is usually carried out in a small focus group
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Edelman Award Paper Revenue Management Saves National Car Rental By M.K Geraghty and Ernest Johnson In the January/February 1997 issue of INTERFACES magazine‚ M.K. Geraghty and Ernest Johnson were presented as finalists of the Franz A. Edelman award for their presentation on a state-of-the-art Revenue Management System that would turn a huge money losing rental car company‚ National Rental Car‚ into a profitable business within two years. In 1993‚ General Motors took a $744 million dollar
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realisation of the need for a new supplier; determination and formulation of decision criteria; pre-qualification (initial screening and drawing up a shortlist of potential suppliers from a large list); final supplier selection; and the monitoring of the suppliers selected (i.e. continuous evaluation and assessment). The supplier selection can be seen as decision making under uncertainty and can be illustrated by a decision tree diagram as follows:- | | | | | | a | Satisfactory | |
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