n Kwa k a a nd L is a I ngal l b a Department of Decision Sciences‚ School of Business‚ The George Washington University‚ Washington‚ DC ‚ USA b IBM Systems Technology Group‚ Silver Spring ‚ MD‚ USA Correspondence: Young Hoon Kwak‚ Associate Professor of Project Management‚ Department of Decision Sciences‚ School of Business‚ The George Washington University‚ Washington‚ DC 20052‚ USA. E-mail: kwak@gwu.edu A b stra ct Monte Carlo simulation is a useful technique for modeling and analyzing
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Monte Carlo Simulation Risk analysis is part of every decision we make. We are constantly faced with uncertainty‚ ambiguity‚ and variability. And even though we have unprecedented access to information‚ we can’t accurately predict the future. Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) lets you see all the possible outcomes of your decisions and assess the impact of risk‚ allowing for better decision making under uncertainty What is Monte Carlo simulation? Monte Carlo simulation
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2010 ‘The problems of Monte Carlo Simulation’ by David Nawrocki This article describes the problems associated with using the Monte Carlo Simulation Model as a tool for determining future investment outcomes for investors. The tool is widely used by Financial Advisors as a means of showing investors future returns on investments. The article discusses why the use of Monte Carlo Simulation in financial planning is difficult and can lead to incorrect decisions which can have a detrimental
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| 1. Research one of the Monte Carlo analysis Products listed in the Topic Notes I reviewed the following products that developed Monte Carlo analysis package: Monte Carlo Simulation within Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Palisade ’s @RiskModeling Oracle ’s Crystal Ball‚ RiskDecision ’s Predict! Risk Controller I really found two of the four solutions excellent. 1. Monte Carlo Simulation within Mocrosoft Excel I really was amazed by by Monte Carlo Simulation that is available
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PERT became popular around the same time computers were progressing from the mainframe to mini-computers. During the evolution of computer technology‚ advanced programs were developed to provide further probabilistic estimates via simulations (Monte Carlo Analysis). B) PERT assumes the Beta probability distribution to calculate the expected time of an activity within a network. PERT requires that for each activity‚ three duration estimates are needed (optimistic‚ most likely‚ pessimistic). This
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Calculation of Pi Using the Monte Carlo Method by Eve Andersson Home : Pi : One Calculation ________________________________________ The "Monte Carlo Method" is a method of solving problems using statistics. Given the probability‚ P‚ that an event will occur in certain conditions‚ a computer can be used to generate those conditions repeatedly. The number of times the event occurs divided by the number of times the conditions are generated should be approximately equal to P.
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Chapter 9 Monte Carlo methods 183 184 CHAPTER 9. MONTE CARLO METHODS Monte Carlo means using random numbers in scientific computing. More precisely‚ it means using random numbers as a tool to compute something that is not random. For example1 ‚ let X be a random variable and write its expected value as A = E[X]. If we can generate X1 ‚ . . . ‚ Xn ‚ n independent random variables with the same distribution‚ then we can make the approximation A ≈ An = 1 n n Xk . k=1
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Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in Capital Budgeting | | |by Prit‚ Aug 2‚ 2008 | |The usefulness of Monte carlo Simulation in Capital Budgeting and the processes involved in Monte Carlo Simulation. It also | |highlights the advantages in some situation compared to other deterministic models where uncertainty is the norm. | |[pic]
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Decision Tree Analysis Choosing Between Options by Projecting Likely Outcomes Decision Trees are useful tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can explore options‚ and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action. This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different
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are many decisions which have to be made. One such decision opportunity arose about one week ago. The question was what to do with a major cable which is in the way of a guard rail that the Department of Transportation is installing. In this paper‚ the decision on what to do with this cable will be solved using a decision tree. The discussion will include the major factors involved in making the decision and also show how the final decision was made. Decision tree The decision tree is an effective
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