1. What is CSX’s motive for buying Conrail? • Synergy effect with lower cost The merged company could consolidate overlapping operations and reduce cost. CSX estimated that cost reduction would yield an additional $370 million in annual operating income by the year 2000‚ net of merger costs. • Expansion of market share by extending railroad network Railroad industry is a mature market. The only option to grow is through acquisitions. In 1995‚ Conrail owned 29.4% of the Eastern rail
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ASW/QMB-Ch.04 3/8/01 10:35 AM Page 96 Chapter 4 DECISION ANALYSIS CONTENTS 4.1 PROBLEM FORMULATION Influence Diagrams Payoff Tables Decision Trees DECISION MAKING WITHOUT PROBABILITIES Optimistic Approach Conservative Approach Minimax Regret Approach DECISION MAKING WITH PROBABILITIES Expected Value of Perfect Information RISK ANALYSIS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis DECISION ANALYSIS WITH SAMPLE INFORMATION An Influence Diagram A Decision Tree Decision Strategy
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(Balakrishnan/Render/Stair) Chapter 8 Decision Analysis 8.1 Chapter Questions 1) Determining the best payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best of the best" is the approach called: A) maximax B) maximin C) Laplace D) minimax regret E) expected monetary value Answer: A Page Ref: 323 Topic: Decision Making Under Uncertainty Difficulty: Moderate 2) Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best of the worst" is the approach called:
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Solution to Tutorial 1 2011/2012 Semester I MA4264 Tutor: Xiang Sun∗ August 24‚ 2011 Game Theory 1 Review • “Static” means one-shot‚ or simultaneous-move; “Complete information” means that the payoff functions are common knowledge. • Normal-form representation: G = {S1 ‚ . . . ‚ Sn ; u1 ‚ . . . ‚ un }‚ where n is finite. • si is strictly dominated by si ‚ if ui (si ‚ s−i ) < ui (si ‚ s−i )‚ ∀s−i ∈ S−i . • Rational players do not play strictly dominated strategies‚ since they are always not
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strikes ensure that the risk is capped on both sides‚ and this is a much more conservative strategy which would protect an investor against unlimited losses. Losses are limited to the premium paid to initiate the trade. 2. Deduce the payoff table The payoff table can be explained using the following example; Zimplow shares are currently trading at $4500. An investor expects low volatility in the zimplow share and expects the market to remain range bound. The investor buys 1 ITM Zimplow Call Options
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Total 0 2.15 Question 3 (a) The payoff to a short forward at expiration is equal to: Payoff to short forward = Forward price – Spot price at expiration Therefore‚ we can construct the following table: Price of Asset in 6 Agreed Forward Price months Payoff to Short Forward 40 10 45 50 5 50 50 0 55 50 -5 60 (b) The payoff 50 50 -10 to a purchased put option at expiration is: Payoff to long put option = max [0‚ Strike price
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Z00_REND1011_11_SE_MOD4 PP3.QXD 2/21/11 12:49 PM Page M4-1 MODULE 4 Game Theory LEARNING OBJECTIVES After completing this supplement‚ students will be able to: 1. Understand the principles of zero-sum‚ two-person games. 2. Analyze pure strategy games and use dominance to reduce the size of a game. 3. Solve mixed strategy games when there is no saddle point. SUPPLEMENT OUTLINE M4.1 M4.2 M4.3 M4.4 M4.5 M4.6 Introduction Language of Games The Minimax Criterion
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environment Introduce basic theory of decision making under uncertainty Demonstrate how to calculate and select a decision when uncertainties regarding the future exist Understand the method that will optimize the resulting payoff in terms of a decision criterion 3 WEDDING ANNIVERSARY? Mr. Right is about to leave work for home. He looks at his calendar. It is August 24. This‚ he feels‚ is an important date. Is it his wedding anniversary? He better buy his wife
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............................................................ 8 PRICING............................................................................................................................................................... 8 PRICE‚ GREEKS‚ PAYOFF DISTRIBUTION ............................................................................................................. 8 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................
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concludes that‚ to achieve a healthy financial market‚ regulation is necessary to 1) increase cost of financial information manipulation and 2) bring back the confidence of investors. 10/1/2010 Game Theory and Financial Market Regulation Table of Contents Introduction to game theory ....................................................................................................... 2 What is Game Theory?................................................................................
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