SCM 421: Merck & Company: Product KL-798 Kristin Olson‚ Michael Lombardi‚ Kristen Prazenica‚ Anthony Sung The Opportunity: Merck‚ a global‚ research-driven pharmaceutical company‚ has core values invested in cutting edge science programs. Recently the organization was accosted by Kappa Labs with a proposal to purchase the product KL-798. This drug is associated with obesity and weight-loss which is becoming a valuable investment to the pharmaceutical industry. The initial decision Merck
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technicians‚ 4 engineers‚ 2 executives‚ and 50 factory workers. If a person is selected at random‚ what is the probability that he or she is a factory worker? A) 1 4 B) 1 8 C) 5 8 D) 2 5 An apartment building has the following distribution of apartments: 1 bedroom 2 bedroom 1st floor 3 1 2nd floor 2 2 3rd floor 1 4 3 bedroom 1 2 1 If an apartment is selected at random‚ what is the probability that it is on the 2nd floor or has 2 bedrooms? A) 7 11 B) 6 11 C) 13 17 D) 11 17 Box A contains
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Time =40 z= (40-43)/2.38 = -1.26 Cumulative probability= 0.1038 or ~ 10% The critical activities are B‚ C‚ E‚ F‚ H‚ J and K. The project should be completed (earliest finish) in 43 weeks - therefore R.C. Coleman’s 40 week completion time cannot be achieved. The probability of R.C. Coleman meeting the 40 week deadline is ~10%. This is a low chance‚ so they should be cautioned if they make 40 weeks their deadline. 2. 80% of a probability of ~0.7995 has a z score of 0.84. Thus
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Chapter 1: Permutations 1. In how many ways can three different awards be distributed among 20 students in the following situations? a. No student may receive more than one award. b. There is no limit on the number of awards won by one student. Answer: a) 6840 b)8000 2. Consider the word BASKETBALL: a. How many permutations are there? b. How many permutations begin with the letter K? c. How many permutations
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Model 2-door 4-door Automatic 135 351 Manual 251 213 If a car is picked at random from the fleet‚ calculate the probability that it is: (i) automatic‚ (2 marks) (ii) automatic or 2-door‚ (2 marks) (iii) manual and 4-door‚ (2 marks) (iv) 2-door given that it is manual transmission. (2 marks) 4. Consider a random variable M with the probabilities specified in the following figure: k 3 6 9 12 15 P (M = k) (i) Find E (M). (2 marks) (ii)
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respective probability. Revenue was also highlighted in the question. Demand one is $2 for one gallon‚ demand one for two gallons is $2-0.5=1.5 in which 0.5 is the opportunity cost‚ demand three for three gallon is 2-0.5-0.5=1. Same method is followed for demand two and three. Expected revenue of store one at one gallon is calculated by Demand one at one gallon*probability at one gallon + demand two at one gallon * probability at two gallons + demand three at one gallon * probability at three gallons
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What is the utilization rate for this service? b. What is the average downtime for a machine that is broken? c. How many machines are waiting to be serviced at any given time? d. What is the probability that more than one machine is broken and waiting to be repaired or being serviced? ( that is the probability of more than one machine being in the system) 2. ‘Fridaz Car Wash at the UTech Barn’ estimates that dirty cars arrive at the rate of 10 per hour all day Friday. With the Hotters’ Girl crew
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Assignment Q1Find the parameters of binomial distribution when mean=4 and variance=3. Q2. The output of a production process is 10% defective. What is the probability of selecting exactly two defectives in a sample of 5? Q3. It is observed that 80% of television viewers watch “Boogie-Woogie” Programme. What is the probability that at least 80% of the viewers in a random sample of five watch this Programme? Q4. The normal rate of infection of a certain disease in animals is known to
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Monthly Earnings (X) = Monthly Revenue (P*Q) – Monthly Expense (F+V+L) =P*Q – (3995+L+11*Q) There are three variables in this equation‚ with the assumption; this model is realistic enough‚ if I was Sanjay‚ I will consider what the shape of the probability distribution of X is‚ and the measurement of this distribution to make risk analysis. a). Without considering the partnership opportunity‚ to solve the case‚ we run a Crystal Ball simulation with 1000 trials. The assumption variables are P‚ Q‚
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This project will involve the performance of Monte Carlo simulations on two accomplished infrastructural projects. A Monte Carlo simulation is a problem solving technique used to approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running multiple trial runs‚ called simulations‚ using random variables. The simulation will generate both a probability and a range of the outcome. Two projects were selected to increase the reliability by minimizing random errors (increasing sample size). The input data used in the simulation will
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