period’s actual value as a forecast Simple Mean (Average) Uses an average of all past data as a forecast Simple Moving Average Uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations‚ with each observation receiving the same emphasis (weight) Weighted Moving Average Uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations‚ with each observation receiving a different emphasis (weight) Exponential Smoothing A weighted average procedure with weights declining exponentially
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Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques o Moving Averages o Exponential smoothing Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation Curvilinear Trend Equation Techniques for Seasonality • What is seasonality? • What are seasonal relatives
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data. 2. SIMPLE AVERAGE METHOD Advantages Of Simple Average Method Main advantages of simple average method are as follows: 1. Simple average method is very suitable when materials are received in uniform lot quantities. 2. Simple average method is very easy to operate. 3. Simple average method reduces clerical work. Disadvantages Of Simple Average Method Major disadvantages of simple average method are as follows: 1. If the quantity in each lot varies widely‚ the average price will lead to
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For example‚ raw materials for the leather jackets need to be ordered 8 months ahead. And‚ in the short term‚ food and labor for daily operations should be forecasted. Hard Rock uses many of the forecasting techniques as: moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and regression analysis. They start forecasting at the unit level every month‚ then take it to the quarter‚ and then to a year. All this data is compared to previous years and to the budget expectation to make
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process of find 20X5 will include the use of moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ and exponential smoothing. The Palmdale Human Services personal expenses for the past four years are represented in the following data: Fiscal Year | Expense | 20X1 | $5‚250‚000 | 20X2 | $5‚500‚000 | 20X3 | $6‚000‚000 | 20X4 | $6‚750‚000 | For moving averages and weighted moving averages‚ use only the data for the past three fiscal years: Moving Averages Fiscal Year | Expenses | 20X2 | $5‚500‚000 |
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better estimates of what will happen in the future n This is the main purpose of forecasting n Some firms use subjective methods n Seat-of-the pants methods‚ intuition‚ experience n There are also several quantitative techniques n Moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ trend projections‚ least squares regression analysis` © 2009 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. 5–2 1 9/5/14 Introduction n Eight steps to forecasting : 1. Determine the use of the forecast—what objective are we trying to obtain
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OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT 1. Supplier Us Customer Raw materials Transforming Work in progress inventory Transformation Finished goods inventory Customer Codex 25000D1‚ 18 dollars (Notes and Problems). Assignment 1‚ 2 make for 15%. Midterm make for 35% and the Assignment 3 for 10%. Finals make up for 40%. Assignments handed in at the beginning of sessions 5‚ 7 and 12. Value added: Inputs Transformation process Outputs. How do we increase value to the product. A lot of things
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Sales Volume 10000 12400 14250 15750 20500 18500 15750 20500 21500 22550 6. Using Data Set E1‚ what would be the forecast for period 7 using a four period moving average: (Choose the closest answer.) a. 17625 b. 15225 c. 15300 d. 17250 7. Using Data Set E1‚ what would be the forecast for period 6 using a five period weighted moving average? The weights for each period are 0.05‚ 0.10‚ 0.20‚ 0.30‚ and 0.35 from the oldest period to the most recent period‚ respectively. (Choose the
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ActualForecastErrorError1011-11810-22108 2266 0098 11 FCT 3 What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights .5‚ .3‚ .2 (largest weight is for most recent data) Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.April373640424743 FCT 4 Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local Whole Foods Market are in the table below. Based on this data‚ forecast week 9 using a three-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 380 8 410 FCT 4 Most forecasting
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FORECASTING FUNDAMENTALS Forecast: A prediction‚ projection‚ or estimate of some future activity‚ event‚ or occurrence. Types of Forecasts * Economic forecasts * Predict a variety of economic indicators‚ like money supply‚ inflation rates‚ interest rates‚ etc. * Technological forecasts * Predict rates of technological progress and innovation. * Demand forecasts *
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