ASW/QMB-Ch.04 3/8/01 10:35 AM Page 96 Chapter 4 DECISION ANALYSIS CONTENTS 4.1 PROBLEM FORMULATION Influence Diagrams Payoff Tables Decision Trees DECISION MAKING WITHOUT PROBABILITIES Optimistic Approach Conservative Approach Minimax Regret Approach DECISION MAKING WITH PROBABILITIES Expected Value of Perfect Information RISK ANALYSIS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis DECISION ANALYSIS WITH SAMPLE INFORMATION An Influence Diagram A Decision Tree Decision Strategy Risk
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DECISION MAKING INTRODUCTION Decision making is an essential aspect of modern management. It is a primary function of management. A manager’s major job is sound/rational decision-making. He takes hundreds of decisions consciously and subconsciously. Decision-making is the key part of manager’s activities. Decisions are important as they determine both managerial and organizational actions. A decision may be defined as "a course of action which is consciously chosen from among a set of alternatives
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Chapter 12 Decision Making I: Need Recognition and Search WHAT DO YOU THINK Polling Question Most of the time I am a rational decision maker. Strongly disagree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly agree Have students access www.cengagebrain.com to answer the polling questions for each chapter of CB. Ask them to take the online poll to see how their answers compare with other students taking a consumer behavior course across the country. Then turn to the last page of the chapter to find the
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Pricing Decisions are decisions faced by top management and marketing managers. How much to charge for a product or service depends on a multitude of factors such as competition‚ cost‚ advertising‚ and sales promotion. Economic theory suggests that the best price for a product or service is the one that maximizes the difference between total revenue and total costs. However‚ in reality‚ the price charged is usually some form of cost-plus‚ which is later adjusted for market conditions and competition
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THE DECISION BOOK FIFTY MODELS FOR STRATEGIC THINKING Mikael Krogerus Roman Tschäppeler Translated by Jenny Piening WITH ILLUSTRATIONS BY PHILIP EARNHART First published in Great Britain in 2011 by PROFILE BOOKS LTD 3A Exmouth House Pine Street London EC1R 0JH www.profilebooks.com First published in Switzerland by Kein & Aber AG Zurich Copyright © Kein und Aber‚ 2008 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Printed and bound in Italy by LEGOPRINT S.p.a. Lavis The moral right of the author
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Operation Decision Assume you have been hired as a managing consultant by a company to offer some advice that will help it make a decision as to whether it should shut down completely or continue its operations. It currently uses 100 workers to produce 6‚000 units of output per month (working 20 days / month). The daily wage (per worker) is $70‚ and the price of the firm’s output is $32. The cost of other variable inputs is $2‚000 per day. It also tells us that the firm’s fixed cost is “high enough”
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USA Decision Analysis Publication details‚ including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://pubsonline.informs.org A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents Tianjun Feng‚ L. Robin Keller‚ To cite this article: Tianjun Feng‚ L. Robin Keller‚ (2006) A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents. Decision Analysis 3(2):76-93
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Analyzing Lease vs. Buy Dec To buy or not to buy is the question for many companies acquiring assets for their business. Equipment and other assets are extremely important when a company is trying to get off the ground in a new business. The chief executive officer would have to ask how would we finance the equipment needed‚ pay back investors‚ and make the company profitable for all. This new biotech company is seeking financial remedies in becoming a profitable company
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2006‚ suggesting that Nationwide’s decision to cancel policies in light of the calm hurricane seasons (in Florida) in 2005-07 may have cost the company potential revenue and customer goodwill. Do you think Rommel’s quote about making a ‘sound business decision’ reveals any perceptual or decision-making biases? Why or Why not? A: Jeff Rommel’s quote about making a ‘sound business decision’ reveals two main perceptual or decision-making biases. The first decision-making bias is overconfidence bias
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methods‚ opportunities for outsourcing with IT support‚ and need for real time on-demand transactions (Consumer demand-related) wanting customization‚ wanting quality‚ diversity of products‚ and speed of delivery‚ and customers becoming powerful and less loyal (Technology-related) more innovations‚ new products and services‚ obsolescence rate is increasing‚ information overload is increasing (Societal) growth of government regulations and deregulation are growing‚ work force becoming more diversified
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